BOK PREVIEW: Chasm in experience points to only one result

There is admittedly one small point that slightly contradicts the expectation that the Springboks will end their November tour by comfortably beating Wales in their final match at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday. Only one.

It comes by way of the several times Welsh teams have upset their South African teams in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship. The world champion nation has done much better than Wales has in the three editions of the URC completed so far, with a final yet to be hosted outside of the country.

Wales, by contrast, have in that period only had one team finish in the top eight - and that was the Ospreys, who snuck into eighth position, and thus a play-off game where they were beaten by the top finisher, Munster, at the expense of the Emirates Lions in the last game of the regular season. It would be fair to say that the Welsh teams have been the whipping boys, even more so than the Italians given how Benetton have periodically made a strong challenge.

However, the South African franchises haven’t always had it their own way against Welsh sides, even when the expectation was that they should win comfortably. It was a draw in Swansea against the Ospreys that ended the long winning run the DHL Stormers enjoyed around the time they won the inaugural trophy, and they’ve lost twice to that team, home and away, since then.

The Stormers have also lost twice in Cardiff, while the Vodacom Bulls’ only blemish so far this season was away to the supposedly lowly Scarlets. The season before last it was a big win by Cardiff in Durban that ended Sean Everitt’s career at the Hollywoodbets Sharks, and it was a loss to the Ospreys at The Stoop in London that unravelled the Sharks season last year. The Sharks went to the last move of the game to beat the Dragons six weeks ago.

WELSH DO GET UP AGAINST SA PLAYERS

There is something that need to be noted - most, yet not all, of the defeats came at times when the South African sides were under-strength and the Welsh teams weren’t. Yet it doesn’t undermine the point that, as Bok coach Rassie Erasmus hinted during the week, the Welsh players do like to get themselves up for games against players and teams from this country. They are arguably one of the few nations that don’t get intimidated physically.

The occasional big performance against SA teams though does not hide the fact there is a massive depth problem in Welsh rugby, to go with their financial woes. It also doesn’t mask the fact that the Wales national team is at a very embryonic stage of a rebuild and go into Saturday’s game having lost 11 matches on the trot.

There was a time when the names of the Wales players used to trip off the tongue, but not anymore. Challenge even regular South African rugby watchers and close followers of the game to name the current Welsh team and you are likely to be given maybe two or three names. No more. Even when Dan Biggar captained the last Wales touring team to this country in 2022 there were more known names and the team was in a much stronger position than it is now.

SA BENCH HAS MORE CAPS THAN ENTIRE WALES SQUAD

There’s a lot of soul searching being done in Wales about the reasons for the demise of their national team, but their coach Warren Gatland hits the nail on the head when he talks about the need to build experience. The transitional stage the Welsh are going through has seen the retirement of the old leadership figures like Alun-Wyn Jones, and the team that got beaten by Australia last week looked decidedly callow.

A key focus in Bok coach Rassie Erasmus’ experimenting this year has been a quest to build up the experience of the fringe players and new players coming through. He knows that for the Boks to have a good chance of retaining the World Cup and making it a hat-trick of titles in 2027, he needs a core of experienced players.

Wales don’t have that at this point. Not even close. There is no player in the 23-man Wales match day squad called up for Saturday with more than 50 caps. The Boks have several just on the bench. Saturday’s squad is not the most experienced Erasmus can assemble, yet it boasts a combined total of 970 caps. Wales tallies only 334 caps between them.

And that 335 cap total is dwarfed by the Bok bench, which tallies 431 caps. In other words, the Bok bench numbers almost a hundred more caps between them than the entire Wales team. And one of the eight Bok replacements, Cameron Hanekom, is making his debut so doesn’t contribute a cap to that tally.

It is when you look at the chasm in experience between the two teams that you realise just how big the mountain is that the Welsh has to climb and it explains why it is hard to see any other result than a comprehensive Bok win.

JORDAN’S CHANCE TO SHINE


Most of the experimentation this time from Erasmus comes in the pack, although the absence of Ox Nche is because of injury. He was initially selected. Yet while there are changes in the starting team from last week’s game against England at loosehead prop, hooker, both locks and blindside flank, the Boks have more than enough power in the pack to expect them to get the better of the Welsh. If they didn’t, they have a proper Bomb Squad, with an entire changed tight five, to call on.

So Jordan Hendrikse, who along with the relatively rookie hooker Johan Grobbelaar should be the big focus of this week’s game as he looks to make the statement that will bring him into the flyhalf conversation in the buildup to the 2027 World Cup, should have a good platform, and lots of go forward ball, to work with.

The combinations outside him are reasonably settled ones and first choice selections and he is an amazing talent so if he can calm the nerves that blighted an otherwise okay performance in his debut against the same opponents in London in June, the Boks could well do what the Wallabies did last week by hitting the half century mark.

What could prevent that is the Welsh attitude. Last week they tried to play a bit against the Wallabies, this week against the world champions they might just put damage limitation first and foremost.

Teams:

Wales: Blair Murray, Tom Rogers, Max Llewellyn, Ben Thomas, Rio Dyer, Sam Costelow, Ellis Bevan, Taine Plumtree, Jac Morgan, James Botham, Christ Tshiunza, Will Rowlands, Archie Griffin, Dewi Lake, Gareth Thomas. Replacements: Ryan Elias, Nicky Smith, Keiron Assiratti, Freddie Thomas, Tommy Reffell, Rhodri Williams, Eddie James, Josh Hathaway.

South Africa: Aphelele Fassi, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jordan Hendrikse, Jaden Hendrikse, Jasper Wiese, Elrigh Louw, Siya Kolisi (captain), Franco Mostert, Jean Kleyn, Wilco Louw, Johan Grobbelaar, Thomas du Toit. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp, Vincent Koch, Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman, Cameron Hanekom, Cobus Reinach, Handre Pollard.

Referee: Karl Dickson (England)

Kick-off: 19.40 SA time

Prediction: Springboks to win by more than 20