Uefa Champions League Quarterfinals: What to Expect in the second legs

Real Madrid and Bayern are two of the four teams eyeing comebacks in the second legs of the Uefa Champions League quarterfinals.

Aston Villa, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid must overcome first-leg defeats if they are to reach the Champions League semifinals.

TUESDAY 15 APRIL

ASTON VILLA v PSG (agg: 1-3)

Aston Villa have lost three of their four games against French sides in European competition under Unai Emery, with all three of those defeats coming in succession (1-2 v Lille, 0-1 v Monaco, and 1-3 v Paris SG). Their one victory did come in the only one of these four played at Villa Park, however, beating Lille 2-1 in April 2024 (Uefa Conference League).

Of the seven previous occasions when Paris SG have won the first leg of a Uefa Champions League knockout stage tie by 2+ goals, the French side have been eliminated on three occasions. Should they fail to progress here, they’ll have been eliminated from more European Cup/Uefa Champions League knockout stage ties, having had a 2+ goal lead from the first leg than any other team (4).

Aston Villa’s defeat against Paris SG in the reverse fixture was the third time they’ve lost by 2+ goals in the first leg of a knockout stage tie in major European competition, while they failed to progress in each of the previous two instances (on aggregate: 1-5 v Royal Antwerp in 1975-76 in the Uefa Cup and 2-6 v Olympiakos last season in the Uefa Conference League).

Paris SG have only won four of their 17 away games against English teams in European competition (D4 L9). One of those victories did come in the most recent one (1-0 v Liverpool in March), however, ending a run of four straight defeats in such fixtures.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has only lost one of his 13 home matches in major European competition as a manager, while winning 11 of them (D1). His only defeat in this run came in May 2024 against Olympiakos (2-4 in the Uefa Conference League semifinal, first leg).

BORUSSIA DORTMUND v BARCELONA (Agg: 0-4)

Borussia Dortmund have never beaten Barcelona in European competition (P6 D2 L4). If they fail to win here, it will be their joint-longest winless run against an opponent in Europe, along with a seven-game streak against Rangers between 1966 and 1999.

Barcelona have won all three of their games against German sides in the Uefa Champions League this season, beating Bayern Munich (4-1) and Borussia Dortmund twice (3-2 and 4-0). Before this season, they had lost five in a row against German opponents in the competition, by an aggregate score of 19-2.

Borussia Dortmund are winless in their three home games against Barcelona in European competition (D2 L1), including a defeat to them already in the Uefa Champions League this season (2-3 in December). Barcelona could become the first side to win away to Dortmund more than once in the same European campaign.

Borussia Dortmund’s defeat in the reverse fixture was the 160th time that a team have lost by 4+ goals in the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League. Of the previous 159, only one team have ever managed to progress from the second leg: Barcelona versus Paris SG in the last 16 in 2016-17 (lost 0-4 in the first leg, won 6-1 in the second).

WEDNESDAY 16 APRIL

REAL MADRID v ARSENAL (agg: 0-3)

Arsenal remain unbeaten against Real Madrid in European competition (W2 D1), and haven’t conceded a single goal across their three meetings. The Gunners could become the first side ever to keep four consecutive clean sheets against Los Blancos in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League.

Real Madrid’s defeat at the Emirates Stadium was the fifth time they have lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League by 3+ goals, while they’ve been eliminated in the second leg in three of the previous four occasions (the exception being against Derby County in the last 16 in 1975-76, winning 6-5 on aggregate after a 1-4 defeat in the first leg).

Across the 53 games that Real Madrid have played against English sides in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League, they’ve managed to win by more than three goals on just two previous occasions: 5-1 v Derby County in 1975-76 (last 16) and 4-0 v Tottenham Hotspur in 2010-11 (quarterfinal).

We go again 👊#UCL pic.twitter.com/xtvRDKLcfw

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 14, 2025

Since the start of the 2015-16 season, this will be the 16th time that Real Madrid have played the second leg of a Uefa Champions League knockout stage tie at home. Of the previous 15, they’ve only been eliminated on one occasion (v Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19), and progressed from the last eight in a row.

Arsenal could equal their longest winning run away from home in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League (4 – won their last three). Indeed, the only previous time they won four in a row, the fourth game of that run was a victory against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu (1-0 in February 2006, last 16 first leg).

INTER MILAN v BAYERN MUNICH (agg: 2-1)

The last six meetings between Internazionale and Bayern Munich in the Uefa Champions League have seen both sides win three times each, while only one of those six victories has been achieved by the team playing at home (Bayern winning 2-0 at home in November 2022).

Bayern Munich have won all four of their away games against Internazionale in European competition, including all three in the Uefa Champions League, without conceding a single goal (2-0 in 2006, 1-0 in 2011 and 2-0 in 2022). Indeed, this is the Italian side’s longest losing streak at home to an opponent across all European competitions (4).

Internazionale have progressed from 21 of their previous 23 knockout stage ties in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League after winning the first leg. One of those two eliminations did come last season, however, losing on penalties against Atlético de Madrid in the last 16, after winning 1-0 in the first leg (2-2 on aggregate, lost 3-2 on pens).

Bayern Munich have only progressed from one of their last eight Uefa Champions League knockout stage ties after losing the first leg, although that did come in the most recent one (3-1 on aggregate v Lazio in the last 16 last season).

Internazionale are unbeaten in their last 14 home games in the Uefa Champions League (W12 D2). This is now the longest current run in the competition, after they ended Bayern Munich’s 22-game streak at the Allianz Arena in the first leg of this tie.

By: Opta