URC PREVIEW: Complacency is biggest threat to SA teams

There is just one player who featured in the British and Irish Lions squad announcement playing in South Africa this weekend. Ospreys flanker Jac Morgan will be the sole representative of the touring team representing the four Home Unions when he leads his team against the Hollywoodbets Sharks on Friday night.

That there is just one solitary player in the 60 that will start the four games in the penultimate round of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship does appear to be a reflection of just how far the Welsh regional teams have slipped in the last four years. There is one other Wales player in the group, but scrumhalf Tomos Williams plays for an English club.

The last time the Lions toured was to South Africa in 2021, and there were three Lions representatives in just the Ospreys team alone. There were also three Scarlets players and two from Cardiff, with flyhalf Dan Biggar also being in the group but a Northampton Saint at club level, while wing Louis Rees-Zammit was playing for Gloucester and No 8 Taulupe Fauletau for Bath.

Of course there wasn’t a URC that year. There was supposed to be one, but Covid prevented it from taking place, and instead, the teams currently competing for the URC played for the Rainbow Cup. The South African teams didn’t play overseas teams until the Vodacom Bulls met Benetton, and lost, in the Treviso final.

NO BIG NAMES TO GALVANISE OPPOSITION

So it’s hard for a South African to draw a comparison between now and then when it comes to Welsh rugby, but the Lions selection does reflect one thing - the Welsh teams don’t have the big names that automatically galvanise opponents and get them up. Which is the biggest danger for the local sides as they go in search of a full house of log points over the remaining two games that will significantly further all of their ambitions as the playoff phase gets closer.

The Stormers missed out on a top-four place last season mainly because they underestimated the Ospreys in Cape Town. Welsh teams have also stymied South African hopes in some key games played on their soil and, in the instance of the Sharks/Ospreys game last season, in London.

While the Welsh teams haven’t set the competition alight, they have produced a much improved showing on the first three seasons of the URC, with two teams in the top eight as we speak, fifth placed Cardiff and seventh placed Scarlets, and the Ospreys (11th) just three points off the playoff bracket and coming to SA with plenty to play for.

The Dragons, in last place on the log, are the outlier, and it really would be a miracle of seismic proportions, and probably require the Stormers to tie themselves into a bundle and refuse to tackle or play with the ball, for them to win in Cape Town. But when it comes to the other three teams, the home sides need to tread warily.

PLUMTREE PUT IT PERFECTLY

Sharks coach John Plumtree certainly deserves points for honesty for his perfect summation of his side’s game against the Ospreys: “The Ospreys can beat anyone on their day and unfortunately we appear to be capable of losing to any team when it is not our day.”

Friday night should be the Sharks’ day. While they didn’t play well overseas, they did enough to win at two tough away venues and bring some momentum into this game. But the Ospreys will be driven by the memory of what happened in Cape Town, not much more than a year ago.

Cardiff are fifth going into their game against the third-placed Bulls so on log position you’d expect a competitive game. The Bulls were good overseas, well at least in the URC portion of their tour, but they’ve developed a nasty little habit of shooting themselves in the feet at home.

Which is really what they have to work on not doing in a game where they will start as overwhelming favourites.
It is less easy to determine a favourite in Sunday’s game in Johannesburg, with the unpredictable Scarlets having knocked over Leinster at home last time out, while the Lions have a lot to play for and are at home. This will probably be the closest of the four games featuring SA against Wales.

Outside of the SA games, there should be plenty of local interest in Munster against Ulster on Friday night as well as Benetton against Glasgow Warriors on Saturday as those games could have an impact on local ambitions. For instance, a Glasgow loss will put the Bulls in the pound seats in their quest for second, and a Munster defeat could present an opportunity for the Lions if they beat Scarlets.

Round 17 Vodacom URC previews and predictions

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Ospreys (Durban, Friday 9 May, 7pm)

The Sharks are missing a few Springboks to injury but they do have Eben Etzebeth fit and in the team, which means, barring a late illness or injury, he will start the game. That is usually a lift for the Sharks, who just need to continue what they started doing from around the 30th minute of the Ulster game from the start in this game, and they should win comfortably.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 15

Munster v Ulster (Limerick, Friday 9 May, 8.35pm)

This is a knockout game for two Irish teams that have both experienced much better URC campaigns than the ones they are currently busy with. Munster are ninth and will pose the bigger threat to the teams ahead of them if they win as Ulster are three points further back and a win might not be enough to get them into the top eight (if Benetton beat Glasgow). Munster have been unpredictable but they are playing at home so they may have a slight edge in what should be a tight game.

Prediction: Munster to win by less than 7

Vodacom Bulls v Cardiff Rugby (Pretoria, Saturday 10 May, 4pm)

The Bulls have arrived home from a four-match tour that wasn’t good from an EPCR perspective - they got knocked out of the Challenge Cup by Edinburgh - but excellent from a URC perspective as their two wins away against the most recent champion teams in the competition have put them on the cusp of a second-placed finish. Perhaps the biggest danger is that they fret too much about how their rivals for second, Glasgow, do in their remaining games against Benetton and Leinster, and thus take their eyes off the ball. Cardiff come to Loftus as the fifth placed team and they wouldn’t have got there through luck, so they need to be taken seriously, but if the Bulls continue where they left off overseas they should win fairly comfortably.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 15

Benetton v Glasgow Warriors (Treviso, Saturday 10 May, 6.15pm)

This is a massive game for both teams as for Benetton it’s about defending their place in the top eight, and for Glasgow a second-place finish hinges on it. Benetton were destroyed by the Stormers in Cape Town last time out but their chances in this game will depend more on how many of the several players who left the field injured at the DHL Stadium will be ready to play. If Benetton are anywhere near full strength, they should push a Glasgow team that have become a bit edgy since they were humiliated 52-0 by Leinster in the Champions Cup quarterfinal.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 7

DHL Stormers v Dragons (Cape Town, Saturday 10 May, 6.15pm)

The Stormers will announce their team later on Friday, but they should have Manie Libbok back somewhere in the match-day squad, which sets the stage for what could be another enterprising attacking performance. The only thing that stands in the way of that is the weather, with 60 per cent rainfall predicted for Cape Town on my weather app. Another focus from a home team viewpoint should be the debut of last year’s Junior Bok captain Zach Portheray, and it goes without saying that Stormers coach John Dobson will be holding thumbs that there are no more injuries to tightheads. The Dragons are last on the log, so the Stormers should win with something to spare, regardless of the weather.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 30 or more

Leinster v Zebre (Dublin, Saturday 6.15pm)

Leinster have now lost two in a row but with only the URC to play for now, we can expect a resounding correction from them. Zebre have been much more competitive this season and they do get Leinster just days after the disappointment of an early Champions Cup exit - well, it’s early for them - so it won’t necessarily be a landslide. But in Dublin, the hosts should win comfortably.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 30 or more

Connacht v Edinburgh (Galway, Saturday 10 May, 8.35pm)

Connacht’s chances of making the top eight aren’t great as they are six points behind the team currently sitting eighth (Benetton) but they will give themselves an outside chance going into the last week if they win with a bonus point. Edinburgh have a more realistic interest in a top-eight finish but are also currently out of the top half bracket, although for them it is a matter of just two points. Connacht are hard to beat at home, so if they reprise anything like the form they showed on attack against the Stormers, they have a great chance of winning.

Prediction: Connacht to win by less than 7

Emirates Lions v Scarlets (Johannesburg, Sunday 11 May, 3pm)

The same can be said for the Lions as was for Connacht - the likelihood of them being able to sneak into the playoffs and qualify for the Champions Cup are very slight and will rely on a bit of help from other teams around them. A five-point haul from the game will possibly give them an outside chance going into the last round, so they do have plenty to play for. But so do Scarlets, who knocked over Leinster two weeks ago, albeit that was a home game. Emirates Airline Park is going to feel a long way from Parc Y Scarlets for them, although it will depend on which Lions team pitches. If it is the one that lost to Benetton, then bet on a Scarlets win.

Prediction: Lions to edge it.

Log situation with two games to go: 1. Leinster 67, 2. Glasgow Warriors 59, 3. Vodacom Bulls 58, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 53, 5. Cardiff 46, 6. DHL Stormers 45, 7. Scarlets 43, 8. Benetton 41, 9. Munster 41, 10. Edinburgh 39, 11. Ospreys 38, 13. Ulster 38, 14. Emirates Lions 35, 14. Connacht 35, 15. Zebre 29, 16. Dragons 9.