Uefa Champions League Last 16 – second legs: What to expect on Tuesday

The Uefa Champions League round of 16 continues with decisive second-leg clashes. Here’s what to look out for as teams fight for a spot in the quarterfinals. Catch all the action live on SuperSport.

Following their first leg victory away to Paris SG, Liverpool remain the overall favourites to both reach the final (39.3 per cent) and win (24.2 per cent) the Uefa Champions League this season. Indeed, Paris SG currently have just a 25.1 per cent chance of overturning their deficit to eliminate the Reds in the last 16.

Though Arsenal are not yet mathematically qualified for the quarterfinals, the Gunners progressed in 100 per cent of the Opta predictor’s 10 000 simulations of their second leg against PSV (leading 7-1 on aggregate from the first leg).

The most evenly-balanced second leg fixture in the last 16 is between Lille and Borussia Dortmund (1-1 on aggregate), with the German side only marginally favoured to progress to the quarterfinals (50.4 per cent).

WHAT THE STATS SAY

Barcelona v Benfica (agg: 1-0)

Barcelona have only lost one of their last 10 games against Benfica in European competition (W5 D4), while they are unbeaten in the four occasions when they’ve hosted the Portuguese side (W2 D2).

Barcelona have already beaten Benfica twice in the Uefa Champions League this season, with both victories coming away from home (5-4 in January and 1-0 last week). Benfica have never previously been beaten three times by the same opponent in the same European campaign.

Benfica haven’t won any of their four away games against Barcelona in European competition (D2 L2), while they’ve failed to score a goal in each of the last three. The only opponents they’ve faced more often away from home in Europe without ever winning are Bayern Munich (7) and Manchester United (5).

The last Portuguese side to win away to Barcelona in European competition was FC Porto in September 1972 (1-0 in the Uefa Cup). Since then, Portuguese teams haven’t won any of their 14 away games there, with 12 of those ending in defeats (D2).

Benfica have been eliminated on five of the previous six occasions when losing the first leg of a Uefa Champions League knockout stage tie, only once managing to come back to progress – versus Zenit St Petersburg in the last 16 in 2011-12 (lost 2-3 in first leg, won 2-0 in the second).

Inter Milan v Feyenoord (agg: 2-0)

Inter and Feyenoord have met on three previous occasions in Europe, with both sides winning one game each (D1). Those two victories have both been achieved by the away side, with Feyenoord winning in Italy in April 2002 (1-0) and Inter winning in the Netherlands last week (2-0).

Feyenoord are winless in their last eight away matches against Italian sides in European competition (D3 L5), and haven’t managed to win any of their 12 overall matches there by more than a single goal (W2 D3 L7).

Inter have won four of their five home games against Dutch sides in the Uefa Champions League (D1), keeping a clean sheet in all four victories. The last Dutch side to face them away from home in the competition did avoid defeat, however, with PSV drawing 1-1 in 2018-19.

Inter have won each of their last five home games in the Uefa Champions League without conceding a goal, and have kept a clean sheet in each of the last six. The last side to keep seven straight clean sheets at home in the competition was Atlético de Madrid in April 2015 (7), while the last Italian side to do so was Juventus in December 2002 (7).

Across their 26 away matches in the Uefa Champions League, Feyenoord – who trail by two goals in this tie – have only ever managed one victory by more than a single goal. That victory did come earlier this season, however, beating Benfica 3-1 at the Estádio da Luz in October.

Liverpool v Paris SG (agg: 1-0)

After losing their first European meeting with Paris SG in April 1997 (0-3 in the Cup Winners’ Cup semifinal first leg), Liverpool have only lost one of four against them since, winning three of them.

None of the last 15 French sides to play away from home against an English opponent in Europe have managed to win, with 14 of those ending in defeats (D1). Indeed, the last such victory was by Paris SG in December 2020 against Manchester United (3-1 in the Uefa Champions League).

Liverpool have progressed from each of their last 14 Uefa Champions League knockout stage ties having won the first leg, with Bayer Leverkusen in 2001-02 (quarterfinals) the last side to eliminate them after the Reds had taken an advantage into the second leg (Liverpool won first leg 1-0, lost 2-4 in the second).

Paris SG have managed to progress from two of their previous five Uefa Champions League knockout stage ties after losing the first leg, coming back to beat Borussia Dortmund on aggregate in the 2019-20 last 16 (3-2) and Barcelona in the 2023-24 quarterfinals (6-4).

Liverpool have won all four of their home games in the Uefa Champions League this season. Should they claim another victory here, Arne Slot would become the first manager to win each of his first five home matches in charge of an English side in the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich (agg: 0-3)

Following their 3-0 victory in the first leg, Bayern Munich could register multiple wins over Bayer Leverkusen in the same campaign for the first time since 2020-21 (two under Hansi Flick, both in the Bundesliga).

Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their three home games against Bayern Munich under Xabi Alonso, winning two of them (D1). Prior to Alonso’s arrival, they only won one of their previous eight home matches against Bayern (D2 L5), between 2015-16 and 2021-22.

Bayern Munich are looking to qualify for the quarterfinals of the European Cup/Uefa Champions League for the 35th time, with only Real Madrid having done so on more occasions (39, prior to their second leg against Atlético).

Bayer Leverkusen will be aiming to become just the fifth side in Uefa Champions League history to lose the first leg of a knockout stage tie by 3+ goals and still progress, after Deportivo de La Coruña in 2003-04 (v Milan, quarterfinals), Barcelona in 2016-17 (v Paris SG, last 16), Roma in 2017-18 (v Barcelona, quarterfinals) and Liverpool in 2018-19 (v Barcelona, semifinals).

Bayern Munich – who lead by three goals in this tie – have already lost two away games in the Uefa Champions League this season by a three-goal margin (1-4 v Barcelona in October and 0-3 v Feyenoord in January). Indeed, this is already the only European Cup/Champions League campaign in which they’ve ever suffered more than one defeat by 3+ goals (2).