Bafana Bafana’s setback: What the three-point deduction means

South Africa’s forfeiture of their 2–0 win over Lesotho, due to fielding an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, has dramatically altered Group C’s landscape. The result was reversed to a 3–0 win for Lesotho, costing Bafana three crucial points and dropping them to second place behind Benin on goal difference.

IMPLICATIONS

Both Benin and South Africa now sit on 14 points, but Benin leads on goal difference (+4 v Bafana’s +3). South Africa must win both remaining fixtures to reach 20 points and stay in contention for either direct qualification or a playoff spot.

The deduction disrupts momentum and adds pressure ahead of two must-win home games. Only the group winner qualifies automatically for the World Cup.

Benin have the edge with a superior goal difference and a home fixture against Lesotho. However, they face Nigeria away — a potential stumbling block.

South Africa benefit from two home fixtures in Durban, but must win both and hope Benin drop points.

Nigeria and Rwanda are outsiders but could leapfrog if results go their way — especially if Benin and Bafana falter.

The Confederation of African Football (CAF) allows the four best second-placed teams across nine groups to enter a playoff for a spot in the inter-confederation playoffs.

CURRENT TOP RUNNERS-UP (AS OF 10 SEPT 2025):

South Africa are currently outside the top 8 runners-up due to the deduction. If Bafana wins both remaining matches, they’ll reach 20 points — likely enough to top Group C or secure a playoff spot.

For Benin, if overtaken by South Africa, they could still qualify as a runner-up with 17–20 points depending on final results.

TIME FOR CALCULATORS

- Bafana must beat Zimbabwe and Rwanda convincingly to boost goal difference.

- Bafana must hope Benin drop points — especially against Nigeria.

- Monitor other groups: a second-place finish with 20 points and a strong GD could still secure a playoff berth.

- A draw or loss in either game could see Bafana finish third.

- Nigeria and Rwanda are lurking — both capable of upsetting the order.

The three-point deduction has turned Group C into a knife-edge contest. South Africa’s fate now hinges on flawless execution and favourable results elsewhere. With home advantage and a talented squad, Bafana Bafana still have a path — but it’s narrow, and every goal counts.