PREVIEW: Impossible to call but this could be watershed moment for the Boks

In many coaching tenures or World Cup cycles there comes a point that turns out to be a watershed moment, one that decides the way forward, and that could be the case for Rassie Erasmus and his Springbok team on Saturday.

The Wellington match between the All Blacks and South Africa could well be a deciding moment in this year’s Castle Lager Rugby Championship. Particularly if New Zealand wins the game and takes a two win lead on the Boks. Yes, Australia are more competitive this year, but if the All Blacks can go back to back against South Africa they can certainly do the same to Australia in the forthcoming Bledisloe Cup fixtures.

However, this game could be about a lot more than that for Siya Kolisi’s team. Had the Boks stuck with the team that played last week we could be confident they would win. They appeared to find their feet at Eden Park after a slow start, and were growing into the game the longer it progressed. My money would certainly be on the Boks at Sky Stadium, where they have experienced recent success, with the last two games there being a win and a draw.

RASSIE INTRODUCED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY

Coach Erasmus though introduced a level of uncertainty when on Monday he announced a team that featured seven changes and omitted some experienced stalwarts from the mix. Outsiders will see it as a gamble, but there is no denying that the team has an exciting look to it and plenty of potential.

If this was a team representing another country with less depth than South Africa has available to it, you could bet on it developing into a combination that would challenge for global supremacy. That is because if it was a statement of all that was available, it would mean that the coach would definitely stick with that team for a good run of matches and the combinations would have a chance to bed in.

But this is South Africa and the coach is Erasmus and, because there are so many different alternatives to look at, not least the players that the coach said last week would be playing a World Cup final if it was played right now and are now watching from the stands, it is far from certain this team will get the extended run that would allow them to develop.

COULD BECOME A MOMENT LIKE JAKE’S IN 2005

Unless of course they hit bulls eye on Saturday and confirm the potential straight away, in which case this juncture in the World Cup cycle could be similar to what Jake White experienced in the 2004 to 2007 World Cup cycle when he selected what looked like an experimental team for a Mandela Cup game against Australia in Johannesburg in 2005.

We thought it was an experimental team at the time because it featured new combinations, like Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie playing together in the midfield. Up to that point De Villiers had played only as a wing and not an inside centre, and Fourie had been in and out of the team. The centres who had mostly played up to that point were De Wet Barry and Marius Joubert.

But that afternoon the Boks produced a superb exhibition of attacking rugby, with the two centres very much the fulcrum around which everything else in the Bok game thrived. And the rest, as they say, was history as from then on that was the Bok midfield and De Villiers and Fourie went on to play a record number of games together before it was broken by the two men left out in Wellington, Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel.

This could be that moment, and we are not just talking about the midfield. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu was backed to wear the No 10 against the All Blacks in Johannesburg last year so his is hardly a left field selection, but produce in Wellington, produce the game driving performance laced with the flair that he is capable of, and it will be hard to overlook him going forward.

His Stormers teammate alongside him, Damian Willemse, brings a new dynamic to the Bok attacking game in the sense he provides a three first receiver option that adds to the array of offensive threats, while Canan Moodie, it should not be forgotten, has always looked like his best position might be outside centre. He produced a world class performance against these opponents before - and it happened to be on the night the Boks won 35-7 at Twickenham in the buildup to the 2023 Rugby World Cup.


WIN WILL BRING CONFIDENCE TO BACK THESE HORSES

There’s a fresh look to the team and it if thrives this could well determine Erasmus’ way forward. That is not to say all the experienced players will be summarily axed, but it will give the coach confidence to back these horses, just like that aforementioned 2005 game did for White.

Of course, this is a more important game than that one 20 years ago was, in the sense that this is for the Championship, whereas the Ellis Park game referred to didn’t have the southern hemisphere crown at stake, in those days the Tri-Nations.

Which means that it could go the other way if the Boks lose, or don’t at least show plenty of promise. In which case Harry Viljoen’s reign springs to mind. Remember how when he came in, Viljoen espoused the virtues of running rugby, instructed his players not to kick in his first game in charge, and then after a defeat to New Zealand in Cape Town went in the opposite direction.

Hopefully Erasmus has too much experience to do that and will continue to be brave, but the question about the patience to endure defeat, and steps backwards for the goal of going forward, doesn’t just focus on the coach but on all of South African rugby’s stakeholders.

Who will win? I’ve already said it is impossible to call, in the sense if we wake up on Sunday morning having witnessed a resounding Bok win, which is entirely possible if all the passes stick and the key decision-makers make the right decisions and execute the balanced game that didn’t endure in the loss to Australia in Johannesburg, it would not be a surprise.

But we could also have witnessed one of those nearly nearly games, like last week, where the Boks came close and showed promise, or we could see the defence exposed by the All Blacks and a comfortable win for the hosts. For it is the defensive game that could be the most difficult to co-ordinate for a new backline. That perhaps is the biggest question of all.

The Boks, even without Eben Etzebeth, do still have a formidable pack, and with Jasper Wiese back the loose trio has a more balanced look to it. It is an old cliche but it is nonetheless true - if the Boks get go-forward ball and can start with the momentum they finished with in Auckland, then the best case scenario is on the cards.

My view is that there is more talent packed into the South African team than the All Blacks, who may be a bit short of the aura and quality of their past teams. It is just a question of whether this will be the day all that Bok talent will gel. Only Saturday will tell us.

TEAMS


New Zealand: Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Billy Proctor, Jordie Barrett, Leroy Carter, Beauden Barrett, Noah Hotham, Wallace Sititi, Ardie Savea, Simon Parker, Tupou Vaa’i, Scott Barrett (captain), Tyrel Lomax, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Ethan de Groot. Replacements: Brodie McAlister, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Fabian Holland, Du Plessis Kirifi, Finlay Christie, Quinn Tupaea, Ruben Love.

South Africa: Aphelele Fassi, Cheslin Kolbe, Canan Moodie, Damian Willemse, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Lood de Jager, Thomas du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Marnus van der Merwe, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Wilco Louw, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok, Andre Esterhuizen.

Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)

Kick-off: 09.05 SA time

Prediction: Rather keep your money but Boks to win if you must