URC PREVIEW: Shield win will confirm Sharks’ turnaround

The coaches of the local teams participating in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship have been selective over the past few seasons about how seriously they take the South African Shield, which these days is decided by derby results and not overall log position.

When I asked him the question after his team had lost a Cape Town derby to the DHL Stormers in the first season of the URC, the Vodacom Bulls coach Jake White gave a bit of a snide answer about the Stormers needing the Shield more since it had been so long since “Western Province or the Stormers have won any trophies”.

In other words, even the insignificant Shield would mean something to a success starved union or franchise. While there was an edge to his comment, he wasn’t wrong, and the Stormers did celebrate the winning of the Shield that year like they had won the main event itself.

But then they went on to win the main event, ironically beating White’s Bulls in the final, and suddenly the Shield win wasn’t quite as significant.

John Dobson’s team went on to win the Shield again the following season, and quite comfortably. The night they clinched it, after a day that saw the Bulls lose to the Emirates Lions, they did celebrate it albeit in a fairly low key manner.

But no-one thought of that relative success when a few months later the Stormers butchered a home Grand Final against Munster.

Which would have been White’s experience last year. He said on television early in the season that “no-one cares about the Shield, we want to win the main trophy”, but that didn’t stop he and his team from celebrating their Shield win.

Like the Stormers the year before, however, there wasn’t anything to celebrate, and little consolation to be drawn from the Shield win, when they dropped the ball on the deciding day of the season against Glasgow Warriors on their home patch.

SHARKS MADE FIRST REFERENCE TO SHIELD

What may matter though when you do win the Shield is where you stood in derbies and on the South African pecking order the year before. Which cues the Hollywoodbets Sharks. This week they became the first local franchise, through their marketing department, to make any reference to the Shield.

They are not heading the Shield as they go into what their coach John Plumtree rightly referred to as a home and away mini-series against the Emirates Lions over the next two Saturdays, but they are just two points adrift of the Bulls with an extra game to play and must be favourites to lift the secondary prize, at the very least, this year.

The Sharks do appear to be targeting a Shield win and like the Stormers in that first season three years ago, they have good reason to do so. Last year, in Plumtree’s first season in charge, they did not win a single derby.

They finished on the bottom of the local log after being beaten home and away by the Bulls, Stormers and Lions.

So far this season the only derby they dropped was the one in Cape Town where the Stormers beat them with a last gasp try. They beat the Stormers for the first time in the competition in Durban a few weeks before that, and subsequently they’ve followed up with wins home and away against the Bulls.

They trail the Bulls by a few points on the overall log but have a game in hand and do now look the best South African team. It might be rendered meaningless later in the season if they fluff their lines in the knock-out series, but right now winning the Shield would reflect the growth the Sharks have undergone over the past 12 months.

WIN WILL CONFIRM STANDING AS TOP SA TEAM

Admittedly the Carling Currie Cup was played under-strength, but when it came to the knock-outs the URC franchises had reasonably strong sides playing for them and they won the domestic competition. So winning the Shield will confirm their standing as the top team in South Africa.

It won’t be easy, as although they did edge out the Lions in a tight domestic final, the Johannesburg team does have the wood over them, and won comfortably in the corresponding game at Emirates Airlines Park last year.

But this is a different Sharks team to the one that played then, not so much in personnel but in headspace, and they do know how to beat their fellow South African teams.

The smart money should be on them winning both Saturday’s game in Johannesburg and then enjoy an inauguration after their home game against the Lions seven days later.

THREE TEAMS IN IT

When it comes to the Shield, there are three teams still in it, with the Stormers’ derby form not being nearly as good as in previous seasons but still good enough to see them tied together with the Sharks as it stands. That’s because although they’ve lost three games of the five they’ve played, they haven’t been beaten convincingly by another local team.

Indeed, they could easily be way out in front at the moment were it not for the TMO spotting a small knock that disallowed what would have been a match winning Manie Libbok try in Durban and Clayton Blommetjies missing a match winning conversion last time out against the Bulls.

The big north/south derby in Pretoria may not be between the top two teams in the country as it was in previous seasons of the URC but it is still huge for both sides and while the crowd isn’t expected to be nearly as big as last season’s full house, the Bulls/Stormers clashes are never short of drama.

This time should be no different, and seeing the Shield is the focus of this preview, it ought to be noted that if the Sharks lose to the Lions earlier in the afternoon, the Bulls will effectively be playing for the Shield when their game starts.

It should add further motivation, not that, as the players have all said in their media interviews this week, any should be needed when these two historical arch-rivals play each other.

OSPREYS COULD HELP TOP TWO LOCAL TEAMS

It is going to be an absorbing and significant weekend though for more than just the local derbies, with several games involving overseas teams likely to have a big impact on the respective quests of the SA sides for top four places (Bulls and Sharks) and top eight places (Stormers and Lions).

If there is a game you should watch it might well be the one between the Glasgow Warriors and the Ospreys in Glasgow later on Saturday night.

The Bulls and Sharks are chasing the Warriors for second spot and I have a sneaky suspicion that this might be the game where the resurgent Ospreys do what they did to the Stormers in Cape Town last season by putting a spoke in the works.

Not that the games between Munster and Edinburgh or Connacht and Benetton, or for that matter Ulster and Scarlets, carry any less significance. The log, be it at the top or the middle reaches of the table, is that close.

WEEKEND VODACOM URC FIXTURES

Munster v Edinburgh (Limerick, Friday 9:35pm)

Munster are on the rise again after the turmoil of a mid-season change of coach and are now fifth and homing in on the Bulls and the Sharks in their quest for a top four finish.

Edinburgh by contrast have slipped a bit since their shock derby win over the Glasgow Warriors over the festive season and have moved from the top eight into ninth, where they have become vulnerable to the ambitions of the Stormers, Lions and a clutch of other teams breathing down their necks.

Prediction: Munster to win by 12

Zebre v Dragons (Parma, Friday 9:35pm)

This is the clash between the two teams vying to avoid the wooden spoon. The Zebre are for once winning that battle, and quite comprehensively too, and a win in this game could even put them in the running for a top eight finish.

They are 12 points ahead of the Dragons on the log, in 15th place against the Dragons’ 16th, and on their home field that difference should be reflected in the result.

Prediction: Zebre to win by 8

Emirates Lions v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Johannesburg, Saturday 2:30pm)

Sharks coach John Plumtree reminded us during the week that his team’s record against the Lions is not good. Last year, in his first season in charge, the Durbanites lost both games, allowing the Lions to come back from a big deficit to win at the death at Hollywoodbets Kings Park, while the Lions were comfortable winners in Johannesburg.

The Lions in turn showed two weeks ago against the Stormers that too much shouldn’t be read into their losses to the Bulls when it comes to derby form.

The Sharks though showed in Pretoria two weeks ago that they now have the depth to prevail in any derby regardless of where it is played and they start as favourites to keep their good record against South African teams intact. But it won’t be by much.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 7

Leinster v Cardiff Rugby (Dublin, Saturday 5pm)

Leinster suffered a bit of a scare when they only just scraped home against the Ospreys a few weeks ago and this week they are up against the strongest Welsh team. Cardiff are sixth and challenging the Sharks for a place in the top four.

However, Cardiff’s recent visit to Connacht, where they lost by five points, might be an indicator of what will happen in this game. Both teams will be missing players to international duty, but Leinster are more able to absorb it than Cardiff are. Plus they are at home.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 10

Vodacom Bulls v DHL Stormers (Pretoria, Saturday 5:30pm)

The Bulls were apparently quite excited that they’d already sold 20 000 tickets earlier in the week, which might be a reflection of how much both teams might have slipped in the estimation of those who pitched for last year's game when the stadium was filled to capacity.

It’s not really that the Bulls have slipped, because they are third on the overall log which is pretty much where they were this time 12 months ago, but that their two losses in the two derbies against the Sharks have hurt their local standing.

With the Stormers now 10th on the log, and the Bulls probably acknowledging that they are behind the Sharks when it comes to the derby rivalry, this is no longer a battle between the top two teams. The Bulls should win, but they showed in losing to an under-strength Sharks team a few weeks back that they are far from invincible and the Stormers will be supremely motivated.

I will go for a home win, which is also what the bookies say, but there will be no surprise if the Cape team does get over the line.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 8

Ulster v Scarlets (Belfast, Saturday 7:15pm)

Everywhere you look there are games of significance in the battle for top eight spots. Ulster haven’t had a great season and for them 14th must feel like a disaster. But, like the Stormers, they are still in it when it comes to top eight qualification and are therefore still alive in the competition.

Scarlets, after being sixth at one point, are dropping away a bit, and are now on the cusp of dropping out of the top eight (they are eighth) so this is a big game.

Prediction: Ulster to win by 8

Glasgow Warriors v Ospreys (Glasgow, Saturday 9:35pm)

Glasgow comfortably beat the Welsh basement dwellers away from home last time out but the Ospreys have become a different animal when it comes to Welsh teams. They made a change of coach following a record defeat to Montpellier in December, with Mark Jones replacing Toby Booth, and they haven’t really looked back since then.

A 43-0 thrashing of Benetton a few weeks back was a statement and then came defeat by just three points to Leinster. It was a home game for the Ospreys but still, it was Leinster. Glasgow in turn only just scraped home by three against Zebre at the end of last month.

It offers hope for the two local teams chasing a top two spot and I have a hunch Ospreys will edge this one.

Prediction: Ospreys by less than 7

Connacht v Benetton (Galway, Saturday 9:35pm)

This final game of the weekend is a big one for the two South African teams challenging to get into the top eight - Connacht are putting in a late charge after a slow start and are level with the Stormers on 24 points, while Benetton are seventh.

Connacht are at home and they should also have fewer players away on international duty so have a good chance of winning.

Prediction: Connacht to win by 7

URC LOG POSITION

1. Leinster 52 points after 11 games, 2. Glasgow Warriors 42 points after 11 games, 3. Vodacom Bulls 40 points after 11 games, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 34 points after 10 games, 5. Munster 31 points after 11 games, 6. Cardiff Rugby 30 points after 11 games, 7. Benetton 28 points after 11 games, 8. Scarlets 27 points after 11 games, 9. Edinburgh 25 points after 11 games, 10. DHL Stormers 24 points after 11 games, 11. Connacht 24 points after 11 games, 12. Emirates Lions 23 points after 10, 13. Ospreys 23 points after 11 games, 14. Ulster 23 points after 11 games, 15. Zebre 20 points after 11 games, 16. Dragons 8 points after 11 games.

SA Shield Standings: Bulls 21 points after 5 games; Hollywoodbets Sharks 14 points after 4 games; DHL Stormers 14 points after 5 games; Emirates Lions 4 points after 4 games.