TEST PREVIEW: It’s not just the forwards that give Boks the edge

As the fortnight since the end of the British and Irish Lions series has progressed and Saturday’s first Castle Lager Rugby Championship test between the Springboks and Wallabies has drawn closer, the nerves of South African supporters have become more evident.

“I am weirdly worried about the Joburg game,” was a WhatsApp message received from one fan of the Boks who is normally optimistic about their chances but it wasn’t a lone sentiment. For the first time in a long time there is concern about what Australia might bring against the world champions, and the fact the first game is being played at a venue where the Wallabies haven’t won since 1963 isn’t allaying everyone’s fears.

The consternation is rooted not only in the Wallaby win over the Lions in the last game of that series, but also out of the positivity and confidence not only that result but also the performance in the game before that in Melbourne appears to have engendered in Australian rugby.

For the first time in a long time the Aussies are talking big when it comes to rugby and there is belief that their rugby is on the up and that they might be challengers for the Webb Ellis trophy they last held in 1999 when they host the next Rugby World Cup in 2027.

Talk of course is just talk, and Saturday’s game at Emirates Airlines Park is one occasion where that hoary old cliche about this being a moment of truth has a lot of truth to it. For both teams. The Boks impressed at points of the July international season but there were warning lights that flickered occasionally at others. Although they won handsomely enough against the Barbarians, Italy twice and Georgia, the truth is that, with all due respect to those opponents, the South Africans haven’t played anyone yet.

JURY IS OUT ON STRENGTH OF LIONS

Yet while a Lions series is always seen as an iconic event, and there is always so much hype around the touring team being drawn from four different nations, it might be argued that we don’t really know what the Wallabies have played so far either. The Lions were definitely stronger than Italy or Georgia, but the jury is out on where this Lions group ranked in comparison to other Lions teams.

That jury will be out until Saturday evening, or at least until the second game is completed the following week. In the UK and Ireland these games are being watched more closely than they would normally be watched over there just because the Lions supporters are waiting to establish the extent of their team’s series winning achievement.

There is so much that is unknown but there was one thing that emerged crystal clear from the series Down Under and which makes the Boks’ primary initial objective an obvious one. That is the difference that the Wallabies’ giant lock Will Skelton made when he was on the field. It was night and day. And prop Taniela Tupou joined him in making a statement in the Sydney game that the Australians won.

The Boks have to stop Skelton from being able to spark momentum for his team by getting his head and arms through the tackles. They have to do what they have so often done in the past against the Wallabies by getting an early statement in the set scrums. Historically the Wallabies have not liked Johannesburg, but they will gain confidence if they can make the early statements in the physical battle rather than leave it to the Boks to do that.

HALFBACKS WILL PROVIDE SA’S EDGE

For most observers the Aussie ability to stand up to the South African forwards and the Bok physicality is key to their chances of pulling off a massive upset. That and how much damage they can do to the Boks at the breakdowns, something that Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has cleverly selected a back-row to circumvent.

But while the outcome of the forward battle will always dictate momentum, that may not be where this game is won and lost. The Wallabies do have some good runners out wide, and scrumhalf Nic White was an influential figure in the Australian win in Sydney, but it could well be at halfback that this game will be decidedly tellingly in favour of South Africa.

While the Boks have three class flyhalves to choose from, Wallaby coach Joe Schmidt has struggled to fill the hole left by injuries to first choice players and on Saturday he has entrusted 34-year-old James O’Connor, who hasn’t played there since 2022, with the task of taking on the pivot role.

Manie Libbok is arguably the best pick at No 10 for the Boks at this point, at least for a dry surface game, with his place-kicking woes having been sorted. White was a factor in the wet the last time he played, but it won’t be wet at Emirates Airlines Park and the pace and decisiveness of Grant Williams at scrumhalf and Libbok, with his passing game, could see the Wallabies floundering and short of air in the rarified highveld conditions.

While the Wallaby forward play may have improved the best they can expect is parity, and even that is unlikely, and the Bok halfbacks should have enough of a platform to weave their magic and bring their team’s many attacking threats into play.

The theory is that the Wallabies are more game ready than the Boks are but if they are to make any kind of statement on their two game tour it is likely to be in Cape Town and not Johannesburg.

TEAMS FOR EMIRATES AIRLINES PARK

South Africa: Aphelele Fassi, Edwill van der Merwe, Jesse Kriel, Andre Esterhuizen, Kurt Lee Arendse, Manie Libbok, Grant Williams, Siya Kolisi (captain), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Marco van Staden, Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Asenathi Ntlabakanye, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Cobus Reinach, Canan Moodie, Damian Willemse.

Australia: Tom Wright, Max Jorgensen, Joseph Aukuso-Suaali, Len Ikitau, Dylan Pietsch, James O’Connor, Nic White, Harry Wilson (captain), Fraser McReight, Tom Hooper, Will Skelton, Nick Frost, Taniela Tupou, Billy Pollard, James Slipper. Replacements: Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Angus Bell, Zane Nonggorr, Jeremy Williams, Langi Gleeson, Nick Champion de Crespigny, Tate McDermott, Andrew Kellaway.

Referee: Ben O’Keefe (New Zealand)

Kick-off: 17:10

Prediction: Boks to win by 14