How are the 2026 World Cup favourites shaping up?

Ahead of Friday's 2026 World Cup draw, AFP Sport runs the rule over the leading contenders at the first-ever 48-team finals to take place across North America next June and July (current world ranking in brackets):

Spain (1)

The European champions have not lost since their sparkling triumph at Euro 2024. Luis de la Fuente's team are a perfectly-oiled machine in which the standout player is teenage superstar Lamine Yamal. They also boast fearsome quality in midfield, with 2024 Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, Fabian Ruiz and Martin Zubimendi as well as Arsenal's Mikel Merino, scorer of eight goals for his country in 10 games in 2025. The 2010 world champions only lost June's Nations League final to Portugal on penalties before cruising through World Cup qualifying unbeaten, scoring 21 goals in six games.

Argentina (2)

Lionel Scaloni's Argentina are dreaming of retaining the title they won in Qatar in 2022. That was their third World Cup triumph. That tournament marked Lionel Messi's crowning glory, but it is hard to see how he can hit the same heights again given he turns 39 during the tournament. Nevertheless, Argentina followed that success by winning last year's Copa America in the USA and they comfortably topped South American qualifying. Beyond Messi they boast a wealth of attacking talent, including Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez.

France (3)

Les Bleus have won the World Cup twice and lost two finals on penalties in the last seven editions. They will be determined to make a big impact again in their last tournament before long-serving coach Didier Deschamps steps down. Qualifying was a breeze for a team who struggled badly for goals at Euro 2024 despite reaching the semifinals. Their attacking issues appear to be firmly a thing of the past given captain Kylian Mbappe's form and the options around him, such as Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele and Bayern Munich's Michael Olise.

England (4)

After several near misses under Gareth Southgate, with agonising defeats in the finals of the last two Euros and exits from the 2018 World Cup in the semifinals and in the 2022 quarters, England turned to Thomas Tuchel hoping the German can deliver a first title since 1966. England usually ease through qualifying for tournaments and this time they claimed eight wins from eight without conceding a goal. Doubts about Jude Bellingham's relationship with Tuchel could overshadow the build-up, but England have so much depth beyond the Real Madrid superstar. They will hope Harry Kane can maintain his remarkable current form –- the 32-year-old had scored 29 goals in 25 games this season for Bayern and England by the end of November.

Brazil (5)

It is still the case that no country symbolises the World Cup quite like Brazil, and their progress under new coach Carlo Ancelotti will be fascinating to watch. That the Selecao felt it necessary to turn to an Italian says much about Brazil's ongoing footballing identity crisis. Since winning their fifth title in 2002, they have lost in the quarterfinals four times and suffered the humiliation of losing 7-1 to Germany as hosts in the 2014 semis. After a decade of pinning their hopes on Neymar, they must now look elsewhere for inspiration. Vinicius Junior will hope to rediscover the form which almost led to him winning the Ballon d'Or last year, while teenage Chelsea prodigy Estevao could really announce himself on the global stage. Brazil only finished fifth in South American qualifying, losing six of 18 games, including twice to Argentina.

Portugal (6)

Portugal have never gone beyond the semifinals, and it is hard to ask for much more from a country of barely 10 million people. Yet they are serious candidates this time, as long as they are not held back by the possibly overbearing presence of Cristiano Ronaldo. He is set to still be there, spearheading their attack aged 41, although the quality of their midfield –- Vitinha, Joao Neves, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes –- could be the key. Winners of the UEFA Nations League this year, Portugal stumbled a little in qualifying, notably losing in Ireland as Ronaldo was sent off.

Germany (9)

Julian Nagelsmann's side sit behind the Netherlands and Belgium in the world rankings and it seems a stretch to suggest Germany could win a first World Cup since 2014. They have since suffered humbling group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, and lost in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals as hosts. Yet the class of Joshua Kimmich and Florian Wirtz, and the emergence of a unique striking talent in Nick Woltemade, ensure Germany should be taken seriously. Recovered well from a shock defeat in Slovakia to top their qualifying group.