Promoted clubs finding Premier League a step too far

Southampton's wretched return to the Premier League could yet make them the worst team in the competition's history and while the other two clubs promoted last season have done marginally better, a worrying trend is emerging.

With nine points from 27 games, Southampton look doomed and surpassing the record-low 11 Derby County managed in 2007-08 is their only target.

Leicester City and Ipswich Town could yet survive, but with 17 points apiece they are five behind 17th-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers who look far stronger.

In all probability, the three promoted clubs will get relegated for the second successive season after Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town dropped last year despite Nottingham Forest and Everton receiving points deductions.

From 1997-98 until last season, at least one of the promoted clubs managed to survive.

But it is becoming harder and harder to bridge the gap between the Championship and the Premier League.

Should the current bottom three all perish it will mean 10 of the last 15 promoted sides have gone straight back down.

In the 2020-21 season, two of the promoted clubs went down and it was the same the following season although the trend was bucked in 2022-23 when Fulham, Bournemouth and Forest survived and continue to thrive.

Last season the promoted trio managed less than 0.6 points per game (PPG) combined and Luton's total of 26 was the worst by a team finishing 18th in Premier League history.

SQUAD VALUE

That PPG average is even worse this season for the bottom three and is heading for a record low.

Southampton failed to win any of their first nine games and Ipswich their first 10.

Leicester initially held their own but have collapsed, losing 10 of their last 11.

Perhaps it should be no surprise. Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester are the bottom three in terms of squad value, according to statistics site transfermarkt.

Ipswich's wage bill in their 2023-24 promotion season was around £11 million – a sum dwarfed by what Manchester City's Erling Haaland earns in a year.

While it has always been a tough ask for promoted clubs, current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) now mean that a transfer splurge is fraught with danger.

"We saw Forest spend big when they were first promoted and get the points deduction as a result eventually," Dan Plumley, soccer business expert at Sheffield Hallam University, told Reuters.

"They are flying now, of course, but look at Leicester as the example of how tricky it is to stay there.

"The promoted clubs always have a choice but it is still a big gamble sometimes to spend lots of money. Even if you try and spend as much as your rivals in the bottom half of the table you are still up against it and still might finish lower because other clubs are more 'well set' in the league."

SILVER LINING

That depth is illustrated by the current table with Nottingham Forest third and Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Fulham and Brentford all in the top 11.

While the promoted clubs are at a financial disadvantage, tactically they have been found wanting.

Russell Martin was praised for Southampton's progressive style in gaining promotion but his inability to adopt a level of pragmatism in the top flight looked naive and he was sacked.

There is a silver lining though. Sheffield United and Burnley are well-placed to return to the Premier League and Leeds United, relegated in 2023, lead the Championship.

Should they go up they will hope to emulate the likes of Brentford and Brighton who have become established members of the elite rather than remain yo-yo clubs.