SIX NATIONS: Seismic Dublin clash could blow title race wide open

Ireland have lorded it over the French for the past few seasons but their assumed superiority in Europe that is reflected in the World Rugby Rankings will be put to a proper test when the two nations clash in what amounts to the Guinness Six Nations decider in Dublin on Saturday.

Ireland are second on the rankings behind South Africa and France are fourth behind New Zealand, and with Ireland unbeaten in their first three games in this year’s Six Nations whereas France suffered an upset at the hands of England, it looks like that order is being confirmed.

However France beat the All Blacks in November whereas Ireland didn’t, and the jury still appears to be out on how long the Irish are going to maintain the momentum which, if it weren’t for the Springboks, would still see them in the No1 spot they were in before the 2023 World Cup.

They delivered a telling riposte to the theories that what was a top four might soon shrink to a top three, with Ireland dropping out, when they beat England, Wales and Scotland, but with the exception of the game in Edinburgh they weren’t entirely convincing - or at least not as convincing as they were prior to the RWC.

Against both England at home and Wales away it required strong second half performances to make sure of wins that looked far from certain at halftime.

AN INTRIGUING CLASH OF STYLE

One thing that Ireland hasn’t done since the opening game of last year’s Six Nations in Marseille, when they thrashed the French, is put together the kind of compelling multi-phase attacking game that was their hallmark when they rose to No1 in the world.

After that game it was assumed Ireland were en-route to what would have been an historic second successive Grand Slam, but their authority waned just a touch after that and their hopes of going through unbeaten for a second successive year were scuppered by Marcus Smith’s late drop-goal at Twickenham.

This year’s games, as noted by former Ireland hooker turned pundit Bernard Jackman in The Times’ excellent ‘The Ruck’ podcast, have seen Ireland undergo a fundamental shift in playing style.

According to Jackman’s interpretations of the stats, and stats don’t lie, Ireland have evolved from being a possession orientated team to one that is comfortable not having the ball.

“There’s been a shift in how Ireland wants to play. Whether it leads to a Championship or not, this Saturday will tell a lot,” said Jackman.

“Ireland haven’t been anywhere near as fluid with ball in hand as they were going into the last World Cup. We still keep trying to play that way but Ireland’s attack was very ‘clunky’ in November, as Andy Farrell called it. Even in the Six Nations last year, bar that first game against France.”

The Irish did put it together quite well at stages of the second half of the Loftus match against the Springboks last July, with the firm surface and dry conditions suiting their attacking strengths. But otherwise Jackman is right - Ireland generally haven’t been quite the same fluid attacking force for more than a year now.

France by contrast might be going in the opposite direction, with their coach Fabien Galthie following the lead of the top French club teams, Toulouse and Bordeaux Begles, by trying to play for space more and to deviate away from the kick dominated strategy of recent years.

It makes for a compelling clash of styles at the Aviva Stadium in a game in which England fans will be holding thumbs for a France win.

Such a result will open up the way for England to be in position to compete for the Six Nations trophy, as a France win coupled with what should be a regulation win for England over Italy at Twickenham on Sunday will leave three teams competing for the title on the last weekend.

ENGLAND CRITICS STILL NOT HAPPY

With England due to play Wales in that final round they will believe they then have an opportunity which would not have been expected at the start of the tournament. However, two close wins have powered England back into the picture, though it is interesting to note that it still hasn’t completely satisfied England’s critics.

Ellis Genge, the talkative England prop, even took a bit of a swipe at the England rugby media, mainly the former players in that group, suggesting that the critics were out of touch. He seemed to be implying that winning ugly is the new way, which of course is debatable.

Nonetheless, it is easy to understand Genge’s frustration, for up until their last gasp win against France, the England habit that caused discontent was their tendency to lose games against top tier nations by narrow margins.

The nine-point deficit they faced at the final whistle of their game against South Africa last November was a rare occasion when they were more than a score behind, and yet, because they had a sequence of not getting across the line as winners in close games, they were pilloried for it.

Now the trend is being reversed, with the France and Scotland wins both coming by a solitary point. The Springboks of course won all three of their playoff games at the World Cup by one point, including one against England, and no South Africans complained about that, so maybe Genge does have a point.

SCOTLAND CONSPIRED AGAINST THEMSELVES

There should also be no denying though that Scotland conspired against themselves when they surrendered the Calcutta Cup they’d hold onto for four years at Twickenham. They scored three tries to one, were by far the more inventive of the two sides, and also looked the most likely to score.

That they lost was because their otherwise excellent pivot Finn Russell missed all his attempted conversions. There was another reason though - the England defence inside the red zone, meaning between their own tryline and 22, has improved immeasurably.

They made three times the number of visits into that zone than England did but didn’t cross the line once. Their three tries all had their genesis from much further out, with Duhan van der Merwe once again proving a scourge to the English defenders in the wide channels.

There was something else too - after they exited the World Cup at the semifinal stage mainly due to the impact of Bok loosehead prop Ox Nche when he came onto the field, there was much negativity about the England scrumming prospects. But those have been systematically improving to the point that it was an area where England dominated the Scots in London.

In fact, if you watched that game and you also watched the Vodacom Bulls play the DHL Stormers in Cape Town a few weeks ago, there were marked similarities. The Stormers were smashed in the scrums but still had a chance of winning the game with a conversion, like Russell did at Twickenham, but missed it.

Russell’s miss, which wasn’t from an easily kickable position like Clayton Blommetjies’ miss in Cape Town was, was a cruel blow to the Scotland co-captain and to his team, who now find themselves once again playing only for pride as they prepare to host Wales in the later game on Saturday evening.

NOW WALES MUST GET OVER THE LINE

Wales made a statement in defeat against Ireland in their first game since the departure of Warren Gatland and suddenly theirs a lot of positivity ringing around the Welsh valleys.

That optimism will be quelled though if they don’t measure up against Scotland and after pushing Ireland close - the game was in the balance with nine minutes to go - the next step for them will be to get a much-needed win.

The smart money though will be on Scotland rediscovering their winning touch in front of their own fans with the individual players in the team, like all of those playing for Home Union nations, having the extra motivation of playing for places in the British and Irish Lions squad that will go to Australia later in the year.

FIXTURES (Round 4)

Ireland v France (Dublin, Saturday 4:15pm)

Scotland v Wales (Edinburgh, Saturday 6:45pm)

England v Italy (London, Sunday 5pm)

STANDINGS - all after three games:

Ireland 14 points

France 11 points

England 10 points

Scotland 6 points

Italy 4 points

Wales 1 point