Uefa Champions League KO phase playoffs: What to expect on Wednesday

Following last week’s first-leg fixtures, three teams have a 90 per cent chance or better of qualifying for the last 16: Paris SG (99.1 per cent), Borussia Dortmund (97.1 per cent), and Bayern Munich (93.8 per cent). Catch all the action live on SuperSport.

After experiencing a late loss in the first leg last week (2-3), reigning champions Manchester City now have only a 19.8 per cent chance of eliminating Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu.

According to the Opta Predictor, the most balanced fixture heading into the second legs was Milan versus Feyenoord, with Sérgio Conceição’s side only fractionally favoured to progress (50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent).

BORUSSIA DORTMUND V SPORTING CP (agg: 3-0)

Borussia Dortmund’s 3-0 win in the first leg was the 12th time they’ve won the first leg of a major European knockout stage tie away from home – they’ve progressed each of the previous 11.

Borussia Dortmund have won four of their five meetings with Sporting CP in all competitions (L1), with both of their previous home games against them finishing 1-0.

Sporting CP have lost 12 of their 14 away games against German sides in all European competition, with the exceptions being a 0-0 draw at Bayern Munich (October 2006) and a 3-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt (September 2022), both in the Uefa Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund have only lost one of their last 15 home matches in the Uefa Champions League (W10 D4), with that lone defeat coming to Barcelona in December (2-3). The German side have netted 33 goals across these 15 matches, at an average of 2.2 per outing.

REAL MADRID V MANCHESTER CITY (agg: 3-2)

Real Madrid’s 3-2 win in the first leg against Man City was the 40th time they’ve won the first leg of a European knockout stage tie away from home – they’ve progressed from 37 of the previous 39, failing only against Odense Boldklub (1994-95 Uefa Cup) and Ajax (2018-19 Uefa Champions League).

Man City’s 3-2 defeat in the first leg was the fifth time they’ve lost the first leg of a Uefa Champions League knockout stage tie, going on to be eliminated on each of the previous four occasions.

Real Madrid have lost just one of their six Uefa Champions League home games against Manchester City (W3 D2), going down 2-1 in the round of 16 in 2019-20.

Manchester City have lost nine of their 27 Uefa Champions League meetings with Spanish opponents, almost twice as many defeats than against sides from any other nation (5 v French and German teams). Indeed, their nine losses v Spanish teams accounts for 28 per cent of their overall defeats in the competition (9/32).

PARIS SG V BREST (agg: 3-0)

Paris SG’s 3-0 victory in the first leg against Brest was the 19th time they’ve won the first leg of a European knockout tie away from home – they’ve progressed from 17 of the previous 18, failing only against Manchester United in the 2018-19 Uefa Champions League.

Brest trail by three goals in this tie against Paris SG, following their first leg defeat (0-3). No side has ever progressed from a two-legged Uefa Champions League knockout stage tie, having lost the first leg at home by three or more goals.

Paris SG are unbeaten in their last 31 meetings with Brest in all competitions (W23 D8), their longest unbeaten run against an opponent in their history. They’ve beaten them three times already this season, last winning four games against an opponent in a single campaign in 2017-18 (4 v Monaco).

PSV V JUVENTUS (agg: 1-2)

PSV have progressed from three of their 11 European Cup/Uefa Champions League knockout stage ties when losing the first leg – against Hajduk Split in 1975-76, Fenerbahçe in 1978-79 and FCSB in 1989-90.

Juventus have progressed from their last 20 European Cup/Uefa Champions League knockout stage ties when winning the first leg, including each of their 11 since the 1992 rebrand. Their last defeat was against Rangers in 1978-79 (1-0 home, 0-2 away).

Juventus have beaten PSV twice in this season’s Uefa Champions League. Only five teams have won three games against an opponent in a single campaign in the competition – Ajax v Milan (1994-95), Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (1999-00), Liverpool v PSV (2006-07), Manchester United v Roma (2007-08) and Barcelona v PSG (2014-15).

Following their first leg victory over PSV, Juventus could win both legs in a Uefa Champions League knockout stage tie for the first time since the 2016-17 semifinals (2-0 away and 2-1 at home to Monaco, progressing to the finals).