Uefa Champions League Last 16 – second legs: What to expect on Wednesday

The Uefa Champions League round of 16 continues with decisive second-leg clashes. Here’s what to look out for on Wednesday as teams fight for a spot in the quarterfinals. Catch all the action live on SuperSport.

PSG, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Inter Milan all secured their spots in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The remaining slots will be filled on Wednesday.

Though Arsenal are not yet mathematically qualified for the quarterfinals, the Gunners progressed in 100 per cent of the Opta predictor’s 10 000 simulations of their second leg against PSV (leading 7-1 on aggregate from the first leg).

The most evenly-balanced second leg fixture in the last 16 is between Lille and Borussia Dortmund (1-1 on aggregate), with the German side only marginally favoured to progress to the quarterfinals (50.4 per cent).

WHAT THE STATS SAY

LILLE V BORUSSIA DORTMUND (agg: 1-1)

Lille have only won one of their 10 major European meetings with German clubs (D5 L4), beating VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 in December 2021 in the Uefa Champions League. All three of their games with Borussia Dortmund have ended as draws.

When Borussia Dortmund have drawn the first leg of a major European knockout tie at home, they have been eliminated in six out of seven instances; the other was against Alania Vladikavkaz in the first round of the 1993-94 Uefa Cup (0-0 first leg, 1-0 second leg).

Lille are looking to reach the quarterfinals of the Uefa Champions League for the first time, while it would be the second season in a row they’ve done so in major European competition (Conference League in 2023-24), having never previously achieved that.

Borussia Dortmund have won their last two away games in the knockout stages of the Uefa Champions League – 1-0 v Paris SG in last season’s semifinals and 3-0 v Sporting CP in this season’s play-off round. They have never previously won three consecutive away matches in the European Cup/Champions League knockout rounds.

Lille have won three of their four home matches in the Uefa Champions League (D1) this season. This is as many victories as they had managed in their previous 22 home games in the competition (D11 L8), prior to the current campaign.

ASTON VILLA V CLUB BRUGGE (agg: 3-1)

Aston Villa last hosted a Belgian side in any European competition back in April 1982 in the European Cup semifinal against Anderlecht, winning 1-0 with a goal from Tony Morley on their way to winning the trophy.

Club Brugge have never won away in England in major European competition in 14 attempts (D2 L12), losing their last five visits. Only Anderlecht (18) and Dynamo Kyiv (15) have played more in England without ever winning.

Aston Villa could become the ninth different English side to qualify for a Uefa Champions League quarterfinal, which would be the most teams from a single nation to have done so (England currently level with Spain on eight).

Aston Villa have progressed from 12 of their previous 14 major European ties when they’ve won the first leg – the others were in the 1990-91 Uefa Cup v Inter (2-0 first leg, 0-3 second leg) and 1998-99 Uefa Cup v Celta Vigo (1-0 first leg, 3-1 second leg).

Club Brugge have lost the first leg at home in six previous major European ties and have been eliminated on each occasion. Overall, they’ve been knocked out in nine of their last 10 ties when losing the first leg, with the other in the Conference League last season in the last 16 against Molde (1-2 first leg, 3-0 second leg).

ARSENAL V PSV (agg: 7-1)

Arsenal’s 7-1 victory in the first leg against PSV was the biggest ever away win in the knockout stages of the Uefa Champions League. The only English team to score 10 goals across two legs in the competition was Man City v Schalke 04 in 2018-19’s last 16 (won 10-2 on aggregate).

PSV are winless in their last six away major European games in England (D2 L4), with their last two visits defeats to Arsenal. They’ve won four of 20 away games (D4 L12), beating Leeds twice (5-3 in 1995, 1-0 in 2002), Newcastle (2-0 in 1997) and Spurs (1-0 in 2008).

Arsenal have won their last five Uefa Champions League matches, scoring 20 goals and conceding three. They are looking to win six in a row for the first time since between March and November 2005 under Arsene Wenger.

Arsenal have won each of their four Uefa Champions League games home games this season, without conceding a goal. The last English side to win five in a row at home without conceding in the competition was Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea in 2021-22 (5), who were then reigning champions.

PSV haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home in the Uefa Champions League since March 2016 (0-0 v Atlético Madrid), conceding in each of their last 15 away games in the competition (33 conceded in total – 2.2 per game).

ATLÉTICO MADRID V REAL MADRID (agg: 1-2)

Atlético Madrid have lost the first leg in six previous Uefa Champions League ties and have come back to progress from three of them, with all three instances coming when they’ve lost the first leg away (2014-15 last 16 v Bayer Leverkusen, 2015-16 quarterfinal v Barcelona and 2023-24 last 16 v Inter).

Real Madrid have progressed from 21 of their last 22 Uefa Champions League ties when they’ve won the first leg, with the exception against Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19. Under Carlo Ancelotti, they’ve progressed from nine out of nine.

Atlético Madrid have only lost one of their last seven home games against Real Madrid in all competitions (W3 D3). In home games against them in cup competitions, meanwhile, Atlético are unbeaten in the last five, winning four of them (D1).

Since winning eight consecutive away games against Atlético Madrid between January 2008 and February 2014, Real Madrid have only won three of their last 17 away matches against them across all competitions (W7 D7).

Atlético Madrid haven’t lost a Uefa Champions League knockout match at one of their home stadiums (Vicente Calderón and Metropolitano Stadium) since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax in March 1997 and are unbeaten in 18 since (W11 D7).