Uefa Champions League KO phase play-offs: What to expect on Tuesday

According to Opta, Manchester City versus Real Madrid is the most evenly balanced tie in the play-off round, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side only marginal favourites to progress to the Last 16 (53 per cent - Man City have a 47 per cent chance).

Paris SG are the side with the best chance of progressing from their play-off tie, with Luis Enrique’s side favoured at 86 per cent to eliminate their French counterparts Brest (14 per cent). Meanwhile, Bayern Munich are the next-biggest favourites, with a 75 per cent chance of progressing past Celtic (25 per cent).

Among teams involved in the play-off round, Atalanta are the side with the best chance of making it to at least the quarterfinals this season (48 per cent). Should they beat Club Brugge in the play-off round, they will face either Lille or Aston Villa in the Last 16.

Here is a look at what to expect in matches taking place on Tuesday. Catch all the action live on SuperSport, kick-offs at 10pm CAT, unless otherwise stated.

Brest v Paris SG, kick-off at 7:45pm CAT

This will be the first time ever that both Brest and Paris SG have faced a fellow French side in European competition. The only previous Uefa Champions League tie between two French clubs was the 2009-10 quarterfinal between Bordeaux and Lyon, from which Lyon progressed 3-2 on aggregate.

Paris SG are unbeaten in their last 30 matches against Brest across all competitions (W22 D8), with their last defeat against them coming in January 1985 (1-3 in Ligue 1). Indeed, they’ve already beaten Brest on two occasions in 2024-25 (3-1 at home and 5-2 away in Ligue 1).

In what is their debut campaign in European competition, Brest have progressed from the Uefa Champions League league phase. They are the first French side to make it past the first round of the European Cup/Champions League in their debut campaign in major European competition since Nice reached the quarterfinal in 1956-57.

Paris SG won each of their final three matches of this season’s Uefa Champions League league phase, their longest winning run in the competition since February 2021 (run of 4), and just one fewer win than they managed in their previous 14 fixtures in Uefa’s premier competition (W4 D3 L7).

Juventus v PSV Eindhoven

This is just the second meeting between Juventus and PSV Eindhoven in major European competition, with the only previous meeting also coming this season, a 3-1 victory for Juventus at home in September 2024 in league phase.

Juventus have lost just three of their 15 matches against Dutch oppositions in the Uefa Champions League/European Cup (W7 D5), winning seven of their last 11 (D2 L2).

PSV have failed to win any of their last five Uefa Champions League matches against Italian opponents (D1 L4), which is their joint-longest current winless run against teams from a single nation (also 5 v Portuguese sides).

Juventus have lost two of their four home matches in the Uefa Champions League this season (W2), the Turin outfit have never lost 3+ home games in a single campaign in the competition.

Manchester City v Real Madrid

Manchester City versus Real Madrid will be just the fourth fixture in European Cup/Uefa Champions League history to played in four consecutive seasons, after Deportivo de La Coruña v Juventus (4 from 2000-01 to 2003-04), Chelsea v Liverpool (5 from 2004-05 to 2008-09), and Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid (4 from 2013-14 to 2016-17).

This will be the 13th time Manchester City have faced Real Madrid in the Uefa Champions League (W4 D5 L3). Of opponents Real Madrid have played against 5+ times in their European Cup/Champions League history, their win per centage of 25 per cent against the Citizens is their lowest against any opponent.

Despite only losing three of their 12 games against them in the competition, Manchester City have been eliminated from the Uefa Champions League knockout stages by Real Madrid more often than by any other opponent (3 times).

Real Madrid have knocked an English club out of the Uefa Champions League knockout stages 13 times; only Los Blancos themselves have eliminated opponents from a specific nation more often in the competition (16 v German clubs).

Sporting CP v Borussia Dortmund

This will be the fifth meeting in European competition between Sporting CP and Borussia Dortmund, with each of the previous four all coming in the Uefa Champions League group stage; BVB won the first three but the Lions won the most recent in November 2021, 3-1 at Estádio José Alvalade.

Borussia Dortmund have a better win rate against teams from Portugal (P14 W9 L5 – 64 per cent) than against sides from any other nation they have faced more than 10 times in European competition; meanwhile Sporting CP have suffered more defeats to German opposition than any other nation (P31 W4 D6 L21).

Sporting CP have failed to win all four of their Uefa Champions League matches since Rúben Amorim departed the club (D1 L3) and head into the knockout phase play-offs on the longest winless streak of any team that progressed out of this season’s league phase.

Borussia Dortmund have won the away leg in just two of their last 12 Uefa Champions League two legged knockout ties (D1 L9), beating Sevilla in the 2020-21 last 16 (3-2) and PSG in last season’s semifinal (1-0).