Injuries, more than form, may determine success of Bulls' run

The Vodacom Bulls were in a celebratory mood on Saturday night, but the joy over their first Vodacom United Rugby Championship win in Cape Town did overshadow one of their biggest concerns going into the third week of derbies this coming week.

While the one-point win - as nail-biting as it was - is perfect for the Bulls as they can now close in on Glasgow Warriors for second spot, with a game in hand - it did highlight the attritional nature of the competition and the fact that whatever South African team eventually makes it to the playoffs, it may be very different from the one which takes the field this week.

It wasn’t a surprise when coach Jake White said the team plans “to lose one and a half players per game” to injury. And while the number may be strange, the half refers to players who pick up niggles that don’t necessarily keep them out for long periods but certainly impact on team selection.

The Vodacom Bulls were in a celebratory mood on Saturday night, but the joy over their first Vodacom United Rugby Championship win in Cape Town did overshadow one of their biggest concerns going into the third week of derbies this coming week.

While the one-point win - as nail-biting as it was - is perfect for the Bulls as they can now close in on Glasgow Warriors for second spot, with a game in hand - it did highlight the attritional nature of the competition and the fact that whatever South African team eventually makes it to the playoffs, it may be very different from the one which takes the field this week.

It wasn’t a surprise when coach Jake White said the team plans “to lose one and a half players per game” to injury. And while the number may be strange, the half refers to players who pick up niggles that don’t necessarily keep them out for long periods but certainly impact on team selection.

COSTLY DERBIES

Already the derbies have been very costly for the Bulls. While they did lose Johan Goosen in the Stade Francais Champions’ Cup game, the Lions derby cost them their two captains in Ruan Nortje and Elrigh Louw - the former on crutches with a knee injury and the latter needing a second operation.

Louw’s season is probably over at the moment, while the Bulls will be hoping that Nortje can come back for the latter part of the season.

Marco van Staden, who has been missing for most of the season, should return this week, while Ruan Vermaak returned off the bench last week.

And the win in Cape Town cost them the services of Cobus Wiese, who limped off the field late in the first half and could also cost them another captain in Marcell Coetzee, who left the field at halftime - ostensibly on an HIA and never returned.

The Bulls still have three derbies to go, and by White’s calculations, that will cost them four or five more injuries by the time they finish their home derby against the Stormers.

That’s why the delicate juggling act may be a crucial one in the Bulls hopes to make the playoffs, especially given the way the derbies tend to lead to injuries.

HOME RUN BEGINS

Following their next three games - home derbies against the Hollywoodbets Sharks, Lions and Stormers - the Bulls will then host log leaders Leinster and bottom dwellers Zebre in a five-week home run before their EPCR Challenge Cup begins again.

Leinster have traditionally sent second string sides to South Africa and the Bulls will eye this as a possible W if they do so again, but the tricky part comes after this five week sweep.

The Bulls first Challenge Cup game is away in Bayonne - and if they win that they will face the winner of Edinburgh and the Lions - which has massive implications for the rest of their trip.

If the Lions do win that game, a Bulls victory will mean they have to fly back to South Africa and then back to Europe a week later for games against Glasgow Warriors and Munster in the URC.

As White pointed out on Saturday night, it makes a massive difference in planning if you know you will be in Europe for four weeks, as opposed to one week. And teams don’t have the finances to fly a different team in a week later.

And this is without the current issues facing the team in terms of finishing off games, their search for a permanent fix at 10 and the loss of some very influential forward stars.

If White is correct about losing players so often in the next few weeks, his team may be the walking dead by the time they get to Bayonne, and if so, may well decide to send a second string side to France.

Either way it will take some meticulous planning, a lot of luck, and hard work by the medical team to keep the Bulls fit and at their peak.

White rightly points out that the team needs to be in the best form when it comes to the last three weeks of the competition, and that no team that has finished top has won the URC yet.

That means a lot of juggling, a lot of hope and some private prayers for the injury list to be shortened - as well as the normal hard work in winning games will determine just where the Bulls finish this season.