On a five-game losing streak, all the Lions can do is cling to hope

It may seem clear as daylight to anyone else watching in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, when you are the Emirates Lions, all you have to cling to is hope.

After their disappointing defeat to Italian side Benetton - a loss that virtually ended all of their hopes of making the top eight of the URC - the team will still cling to hope in their final three games of the season.

While they are far from their stated ambition of the top four - something they aimed for at the beginning of the season - the Lions can only reach 46 points if they win their last three games on the bounce with a bonus point, and historically that hasn’t been enough.

Last season the Lions finished with 50 points from the season, and ended ninth - losing out on points difference in the end and if the past few seasons have been any guide to qualification for the URC, there is only likely to be one outcome.

Still, the Lions cling to hope and believe they can do the impossible - especially as a congested log means that there is a slight mathematical chance that this can happen.

But to do it means a number of strange and interesting outcomes need to align themselves to open the door for the Lions to go in at the back.

LOSING STREAK

Considering the team are currently on a five-game losing streak, it seems unlikely even for the most ardent and passionate Lions’ supporter that this will happen but they will keep on hoping.

It is understandable for them to do so, because otherwise it would mean throwing in the towel.

But there are few that would argue that their entire business model in terms of recruitment and coaching needs a big rethink. Since Van Rooyen took over the coaching six seasons ago, the team has underperformed and has a win ratio of less than 50 per cent, which means they simply make up the numbers in the URC at the moment.

The fact they have still not made the top eight in four seasons - if the current trend continues - begs the question of where exactly things are going wrong?

The Lions don’t have the same depth as other South African franchises, but that is a choice they have made as well, as they do have an equity partner.

But they also made a crucial mistake in committing their URC players to a Currie Cup campaign much earlier than other sides, and while they made the final of the domestic competition and lost narrowly, the effect of those extra games is telling now with a thinner squad than other franchises.

CLINGING TO HOPE

Van Rooyen still believes they can make the top eight, and is clinging to that hope. But the list of explanations seems to mirror the Lions form from week to week and isn’t delivering the answers they need.

“We are still alive, but we need to be better,” Van Rooyen said after the loss to Benetton.

“I still believe we can make the playoffs. It’s really close—most of the teams in the mix are playing each other.

“There were too many errors, especially in the first half. Benetton has 15-plus internationals, and if you make that many mistakes in your own half, they’ll punish you. They’re a quality team with a strong Six Nations core and talented players across the park.”

STRUGGLE WITH PHYSICALITY

One aspect where the Lions have fallen short was in their handling of physicality. It came to the fore against the Bulls in both derbies, against the Sharks in Durban and against teams like Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh. Against Benetton their desire to go wide without earning the right was a massive part of their downfall and only when they were more direct did they get some reward.

“We gave away a penalty more than eight times within three phases. Our ruck reaction wasn’t consistent enough. When you’re chasing the game, time works against you. We’ve been fighting back, but it hasn’t been enough.

“At least we scored four tries and picked up one point. It’s disappointing, but the table is so tight that even that point might count. We’re now in a position where we need help from other results.”

And those results may not come for Van Rooyen and his coaches. Their clinging hopes need to be delivered on three powerful performances and then, even if they sneak into the quarters, they face the prospect of an away trip to a powerhouse like Leinster, Glasgow or the Bulls.

All three of those sides made the Lions look tame in their clashes this season and it is hard to imagine a playoff would go any different.

But for now the hope is all the Lions have, and as the saying goes, sometimes it is the hope that kills you.