CHAMPIONS CUP: Jeopardy in final round as Toulouse join fight for survival

It is very rare to see Toulouse written about or spoken about without them being described as ‘Mighty Toulouse’, but the six time Investec Champions Cup winners are one of two previous serial winners of the competition who have looked distinctly ordinary during the pool phases.

Leinster are the other team, but in their case although they had to rely on an 81st minute penalty to prevail against La Rochelle, who beat them in two successive finals in 2021/2022 and 2022/2023, they are at least unbeaten and top Pool 3. They took over pole position from the DHL Stormers thanks to the Cape team’s implosion in London and their narrow win in Dublin.

Toulouse, going in search of a seventh star denoting Champions Cup wins this season and with the man rated as the world’s best player, Antoine Dupont, back from injury, looked like they were once again sailing through the Pool phase, which is often rightly criticised for lacking jeopardy, when they led 21-0 against Glasgow at the Scotstoun in their second round game in December.

TRIP TO GLASGOW CHANGED THE NARRATIVE

Having thrashed an under-strength Hollywoodbets Sharks team in Toulouse the week before, the French team looked like they were heading for another comfortable bonus-point win but Franco Smith’s Glasgow Warriors stormed back to score 28 unanswered points in what for the Scots was a famous win.

Then this past weekend, looking to atone for that upset result, the same thing happened again, with this time Saracens scoring three tries in a 12 minute purple patch at their Stone X home ground to score another remarkable result against the French powerhouse team.

The 20-14 defeat in the game that ended a third round that did see some high quality games and, unlike the ones involving South African sides, also close contests, has left Toulouse with just one win in three matches heading into their final round Pool 1 game against Sale Sharks.

Judging from how ordinary Sale looked in beating the Durban Sharks’ B team (final score 26-10), Toulouse should win comfortably at home to make it into the top 16 - but there’s a good chance they will have to travel for that game.

That is unheard of for Toulouse, who before Scotstoun hadn’t lost a Champions Cup pool game since 2022. And even if they do secure a top two finish in the pool, meaning they host the round of 16 game, they are likely to finish eighth in the final 16 on seeding, which will mean they could be facing the likely No 1 ranked team, Bordeaux-Begles, away in their quarterfinal.

The Sharks will find themselves supporting the Sale team that beat them last weekend as if they win against Toulouse the French team can be overtaken by the Sharks if they beat Clermont-Auvergne in Durban on Saturday. Pool 1 standings after three games: 1. Glasgow Warriors 15 points, 2. Sale 11, 3. Saracens 10, 4. Toulouse 6, 5. Sharks 5, 6. Clermont-Auvergne.

BORDEAUX ARE FLYING AGAIN

Bordeaux won the competition for the first time last year and look well on their way to adding a second star to their jerseys as they have been in imperious form.

They had to come from behind to beat the Vodacom Bulls at Loftus before Christmas, but in this past weekend’s repeat of last year’s final against Northampton Saints they did a repeat of what the Springboks did to Ireland in Dublin in November by making their statement by physically monstering their opponents.

Bellville educated South African tighthead Carlu Sadie was at the heart of a dominant scrumming performance in a game that the champions won 50-28.

Bordeaux travel to Ashton Gate to play the most recent Bulls slayers, Bristol in their last game on Sunday and from a South African viewpoint it will be interesting to see how that goes. The Bulls rightly copped a lot of criticism for their poor defence in a 61-49 home defeat, but at the same time maybe not enough recognition was given for Bristol’s high tempo attacking approach, something they have become known for under the coaching of Pat Lam.

The winner of the top of the pool clash will secure home advantage for the round of 16 but the loser will be vulnerable to the intentions of Northampton, who are four points behind the top two in third and can leapfrog into second if they beat Scarlets with a bonus point. Which of course they should.

BULLS STILL ALIVE - JUST

A Scarlets defeat will help the Bulls in their quest to sneak into the top four, which would bring round of 16 qualification, but they’d need to beat Pau in Pau on Friday night first. Pau are an enigma, as the French clubs typically are in the elite European competition.

They are second on the Top 14 log in France, which is high for them, but they haven’t appeared quite as committed to the Champions Cup.

They are currently fourth in Pool 4 and will be overtaken by the Bulls if the Bulls beat them so Friday’s is very much a knock-out game. The Bulls do need to win or they risk finishing fifth and finding themselves having to compete in the less fashionable EPCR Champions Cup. Standings in Pool 4 are: 1. Bordeaux 14 points, 2. Bristol 14, 3. Northampton 10, 4. Pau 5, 5. Scarlets 2, 6. Bulls 0.

LEINSTER WILL FINISH TOP BUT STORMERS CAN SECURE SECOND

Leinster’s narrow win over La Rochelle sees them in a four point lead over Harlequins, who picked up five log points against the Stormers, in Pool 3, with the Stormers one point behind Harlequins in third.

One point against Leicester Tigers in Cape Town on Saturday will be enough to secure top 16 qualification for the Stormers, which is an improvement on last year’s failure to get out of the group phase, but they will want to win the game so they can finish second and host a playoff.

The Pool 3 standings are: 1. Leinster 14, 2. Harlequins 10, 3. Stormers 9, 4. La Rochelle 6, 5. Leicester Tigers 5, 6. Bayonne 0. Leinster should be backed to beat Bayonne, who would have lost interest in the competition now, to secure their top position.

EVERITT’S EDINBURGH FLYING URC FLAG IN POOL 2

Pool 2 has also seen some interesting results, with former Sharks coach Sean Everitt’s Edinburgh team going second last weekend with their tight 26-24 win over Gloucester.

It is rare for Edinburgh to host a playoff game so they will be going all out to retain that position by beating Johan van Graan’s Bath but the odds will be heavily stacked against them. Pool 2 standings: 1. Bath 11, 2. Edinburgh 10, 3. Toulon 9, 4. Gloucester 6, 5. Munster 5, 6. Castres 5.

This is the most open pool heading into a final round where at last there is the jeopardy that was missing from the earlier rounds as sixth placed Castres, with 5 points, can theoretically still make it as high as second.

In that sense their game on Saturday against Vodacom URC challengers Munster is a big one as both can climb by winning.

Fourth round of Investec Champions Cup

Pau v Vodacom Bulls (Friday, 10pm)

Bath v Edinburgh (Friday, 10pm)

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Clermont-Auvergne (Saturday, 3pm)

Bayonne v Leinster (Saturday, 5:15pm)

DHL Stormers v Leicester Tigers (Saturday, 5:15pm)

Munster v Castres (Saturday, 7:30pm)

Toulouse v Sale (Saturday, 7:30pm)

Gloucester v Toulon (Saturday, 10pm)

Bristol Bears v Bordeaux-Begles (Sunday, 3pm)

La Rochelle v Harlequins (Sunday, 5:15pm)

Northampton Saints v Scarlets (Sunday, 5:15pm)

Glasgow Warriors v Saracens (Sunday, 7:30pm)