CHAMPIONS CUP PREVIEW: SA needs bounce back but Stormers only real hope

After a disastrous third round of the Investec Champions Cup the South African team desperately need to bound back in the name of pride, but it is only the DHL Stormers who appear to have a realistic hope of making it out of the Pool phase.

The Stormers host Leicester Tigers in their final game in Cape Town on Saturday, while their coastal rivals the Hollywoodbets Sharks host Clermont-Auvergne, with another France v SA match-up happening in Pau where the Vodacom Bulls visit on Friday night.

SHARKS MADE MASSIVE MISTAKE

Sometimes traveling under-strength is unavoidable but sometimes it isn’t and a glance at the Pool 1 log suggests the Hollywoodbets Sharks made a massive mistake last weekend.

In going with a second string team to Manchester for their third round game against Sale Sharks, the Durban version of the Sharks appeared to be prioritising Saturday’s final round clash with the French club.

But with a seven day turnaround going under-strength was not as necessary as when there’s a six day turnaround, like they had earlier in the competition, and by losing without picking up a bonus point they pretty much turned the Clermont game into a dead rubber.

Springbok prop Ox Nche did speak about the Sharks going all out in a quest for the full house of five log points that would give them a chance of advancing to the round of 16, but if they do get five points what would it achieve?

Theoretically it could enable them to overtake Toulouse and go into fourth place, but keeping fourth and securing round of 16 qualification is then going to require a massive upset in the form of Sale beating Toulouse in Toulouse later in the evening.

Toulouse have a two point lead on the Sharks and will clinch a top four spot in the pool, which means a place in the top 14, with a win. The Sharks could theoretically draw level with Saracens, currently third, as Saracens have a five point gap on them. But it would require Saracens to lose without a bonus point to Glasgow Warriors at the Scotstoun.

POINTS DIFFERENTIAL MEANS SHARKS HOPES HINGE ON SALE

Actually, that’s the easiest part. The almost impossible part is in the points differential - the Sharks are currently on the negative side of the balance sheet to the tune of 48 points, Saracens have plus 38. That makes it 86 points that need to be made up. That’s not likely to happen.

The Sharks second stringers went fairly okay against Sale, but that is all the more reason for Sharks fans to be frustrated - Sale looked pretty ordinary in their home game and you’d imagine that a full strength Sharks team or even a half full strength team could have won that game.

If there is a level of irritation among Sharks fans at their team’s lack of ambition it is understandable, for the Sharks could easily have sent many of their top players to Manchester and then still had a good chance of beating Clermont, who are likely to be under-strength for this away game.

Had they picked up any points against Sale they’d have a realistic chance of making the playoffs. They still have a chance but it isn’t a realistic one.

TEAM SELECTION SUGGESTS BULLS AREN’T GOING FOR IT

Although they are last in Pool 4, the Bulls do have a better chance of advancing, but it is unlikely as the team that Johan Ackermann has picked for Friday night’s game against Pau in France is a weakened one and it sends out the message that the Bulls aren’t really going all out for a place in the playoffs.

Instead it appears the strong squad - on paper at least - has been taken on this tour with next week’s Vodacom URC game in Edinburgh as the main focus.

So in the end we are at the same place we were after the first week of the competition as we go into this final furlong of the pool stage - it is the Stormers who hold the only realistic South African hopes. If they beat the Leicester Tigers in the bigger of the two matches on local soil on Saturday they will be in the playoffs, something that they pretty much made sure of when they won their first two games.

They will then wait for Harlequins’ visit to La Rochelle on Sunday before knowing if they will play the round of 16 game at home. A La Rochelle win, which should be expected, will secure the playoff game for DHL Stadium.

Round 4 SA team previews and predictions

Pau v Vodacom Bulls (Pau, Friday, 10pm)

The Bulls went on tour with several big name players such as Kurt-Lee Arendse in the group but they have selected a changed up team for this match against a Pau team that opened up the road to their qualification for a round of 16 game with their good win over Scarlets.

Like all French teams, Pau often go under-strength away but go full out at home, and given that they are second on the French Top 14 log, just one point behind Toulouse, they will be a formidable hurdle for the Bulls to overcome. It looks like next week’s URC clash with Edinburgh is the Bulls’ priority on tour.

Prediction: Pau to win by 15

Hollyboodbets Sharks v Clermont-Auvergne (Durban, Saturday, 3pm)

Earlier this week Sharks fans were urged not to get too frustrated with their team going under-strength for their away game in Manchester as everyone does it, but in this instance the Sharks fans were right to feel aggrieved.

By not picking up at least a bonus point in Manchester against a very average Sale team, the Sharks have put themselves in a position where they need to rely on what would be akin to a miracle - Sale winning away against Toulouse. While Toulouse have lost two games in three and face rare jeopardy for them at this stage of the competition, they’re unlikely to be pushed like they were by Glasgow and Saracens.

At home the Sharks should win against the French club they beat in London a few seasons ago to secure their place in the final of the EPCR Challenge Cup. Winning that competition was a means to an end but last year they showed what they thought of the Challenge Cup with their selections when they dropped into that competition after the Champions Cup group stage.

Being in the Challenge Cup for a third season in succession is their dubious prize if they hold onto their current fifth position in their group.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 15 to 20

DHL Stormers v Leicester Tigers (Cape Town, Saturday 5:15pm)

There is a school of thought that the same criticism of the Sharks should be levelled at the Stormers in the sense that had they gone full strength to the Twickenham Stoop they could at least have come back with a bonus point, which would have made a big difference to their chances of securing a home round of 16 game.

However, it is not comparing apples with apples as the Stormers faced just a six day turnaround from London to this game, and half the team would only have arrived back in Cape Town on Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s not enough when it comes to preparing and acclimatising to play the Tigers, who historically have been one of the strong teams in this competition.

The bookies have made the Stormers strong favourites for a big win, which may be an indication that there is an expectation Leicester will be under-strength.

That’s the problem with the Champions Cup and the EPCR rule that teams can’t be announced until Friday afternoon - it is hard to make a call until you know the teams as Leicester at full strength with all their international players are a very different proposition to their under-strength side. The Stormers will be at full strength and are rightly favoured in spite of what happened last week - it is just the margin that could be impacted by the team that Leicester put out.

Prediction: Stormers to win by between 10 and 20

Other fourth round games:

Bath v Edinburgh (Friday, 10pm)

Prediction: Bath to win by 20

Bayonne v Leinster (Saturday, 5:15pm)

Prediction: Leinster to win by 15 to 20

Munster v Castres (Saturday, 7:30pm)

Prediction: Munster to win by 25

Toulouse v Sale (Saturday, 7:30pm)

Prediction: Toulouse to win by 30

Gloucester v Toulon (Saturday, 10pm)

Prediction: Toulon to win by less than 7

Bristol Bears v Bordeaux-Begles (Sunday, 3pm)

Prediction: Bordeaux to win by 10

La Rochelle v Harlequins (Sunday, 5:15pm)

Prediction: La Rochelle to win by 12

Northampton Saints v Scarlets (Sunday, 5:15pm)

Prediction: Northampton to win by 30

Glasgow Warriors v Saracens (Sunday, 7:30pm)

Prediction: Glasgow to win by less than 7