CHAMPIONSHIP DECIDER PREVIEW: Boks are on the cusp of more history

Argentina and those who don’t want to see South Africa make history by going back to back in the Castle Lager Rugby Championship will not have been pleased with the team that Rassie Erasmus announced earlier this week for Saturday’s finale in London.

Bringing what for him is rare continuity in selection can be seen as an indicator that not only does Erasmus feel the side that has won the last two games with plenty to spare and currently has impressive momentum is close to his best team, it also shows how keenly he wants to make history.

If the Boks get over the line as winners of the Championship on Saturday, it will be the first time they have ever gone back to back in the SANZAAR competition - either in its current guise as the Championship or in the Tri-Nations that featured SA, New Zealand and Australia between 1996 and 2012.

There have been some years where the Boks were so dominant that you’d have expected them to back up the following year, such as 1998 when the South Africans won all their games to win their first Tri-Nations under the coaching of Nick Mallett and captaincy of Gary Teichmann, but the following year it went pear-shaped. Ditto the dominant 2009 side, who whitewashed New Zealand but came last in 2010.

The Boks have started to hit a rhythm now, both in this Championship season and generally since the 2019 World Cup triumph and Championship victory, that suggests they are going to be consistently dominant, and if they do what is needed at Twickenham against a Pumas side that would have been shattered by last week’s 37 point defeat, that will be confirmed.

A WIN WILL DO BUT IT MAY NOT EVEN NEED THAT

What is needed? After last week’s bonus point win, and given the Boks’ vastly superior points differential to any other team in the competition, a win will be enough to keep the trophy in South Africa. Their one point lead over New Zealand at the top means that not even a bonus point win for the All Blacks in Perth and just a regulation win for the Boks will tie it up.

We could even see a situation where the Boks start the game in London already crowned as champions. That will be the case of Australia beat the All Blacks but don’t pick up a try scoring bonus point. My money says that will be the case, with Will Skelton back for the Wallabies in the second Bledisloe Cup game and his presence will be huge for the hosts.

Back though to the Twickenham game - South African fans are living in a very different world now to the one they woke up to on the morning after the shock loss to Australia in Johannesburg that started the competition. The momentum picked up in the second half of both big wins in Wellington over the All Blacks and in Durban last week against the Pumas has led to high expectations and it is going to be interesting to see if they can continue that momentum into this final game.

YOU UNDERESTIMATE ARGENTINA AT YOUR PERIL

One thing that is certain is that Argentina should not be underestimated. Let’s not forget that for the first half hour in Durban last week the Pumas were getting the better of the game and it was mostly the confidence and individual brilliance of flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who starts at Twickenham with a huge target on his back and also massive focus on him, that swung the momentum the Bok way.

But what will happen if for once the Boks put together an entire 80 minute performance, meaning they start the game like they finished the last one? Well, Twickenham has seen that kind of complete performance from the Boks before - the 35-7 win over the All Blacks in the buildup to the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Don’t bet against it happening again, with the Pumas ceding home ground advantage through their decision to have their home game played in London, where thousands of SA expats reside and will be eagerly hitting the London transport system this week in the direction of Twickenham.

But Argentina have also been good in the past at completing mind-boggling turnarounds. The most recent was when they followed up a comprehensive defeat to the All Blacks in their first game in the competition by winning comfortably the following week. We can even go back to 1982, when a Jaguars team that was the Pumas in all but name under Hugo Porta won in Bloemfontein after conceding more than 50 the week before.

That though was a different era, and this era for the Boks is a golden one, and they are simply too professional to be caught out. So they should achieve their objective even though Argentina’s clever coach Felipe Contepomi clearly has a plan up his sleeve given he has made seven changes from the side that lost in Durban.

A CHANGED UP PUMAS TEAM SIGNIFIES A CHANGED PLAN

Geronimo Prisciantelli gets only his second-ever cap at fly-half, part of a new halfback pairing with Simon Benitez Cruz, who comes in for Gonzalo Garcia, after the latter was taken off last weekend due to a concussion.

Santiago Carreras moves to full-back, while Juan Cruz Mallia makes his way to the left wing to replace Mateo Carreras. Contepomi decided to revert to the lock pair that were part of the winning side in Australia, with Guido Petti and Pedro Rubiolo getting the nod ahead of Franco Molina and Lucas Paulos.

Joaquin Oviedo makes way for Santiago Grondona at No 8, and the coach has opted for a 6-2 split on the bench to compete with the physicality of the Boks. It could be that the plan has changed, that the Pumas will be going in with a more defensive mindset in an effort to frustrate the South Africans. It might achieve a damage limitation objective but if the Boks are on their game it won’t achieve victory.

Teams

Argentina: Santiago Carreras, Bautista Delguy, Justo Piccardo, Santiago Chocobares, Juan Cruz Mallia, Geronimo Prisciantelli, Simon Cruz Benitez, Santiago Grondona, Marcos Kremer, Pablo Matera, Pedro Rubiolo, Guido Petti, Joel Sclavi, Julian Montoya (captain), Mayco Vivas.

Replacements: Ignacio Ruiz, Boris Wenger, Francisco Coria Marchetti, Franco Molina, Juan Gonzalez, Joaquín Oviedo, Agustin Moyano, Rodrigo Isgro.

South Africa: Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe, Canan Moodie, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Thomas du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Wilco Louw, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok, Jesse Kriel.

Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)

Kick-off: 15.00

Prediction: Boks by 15 or more.