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Date: Sunday, May 18
Kickoff: 20:45 SAST
Venue: San Siro, Milan
Inter’s hopes of retaining the Scudetto received a boost last Sunday as they won at Torino and then saw leaders Napoli stumble to a 2-2 draw at home to Genoa, meaning there is now a solitary one-point gap between the pair at the top of Serie A. Inter have 77 points to Napoli’s 78 with two games left each. There is one impediment to Inter in this last dash for the line: the fact they are competing in the Champions League final on May 31, which must surely be something of a distraction.
Lazio could miss out on a Champions League berth by the tightest margins even if they win their last two matches. They sit in fifth place behind Juventus on goal difference only after drawing 1-1 with the “Old Lady” at home on Saturday. But it could have been worse as they had to scramble a last-gasp equaliser six minutes into stoppage time. If Lazio stay in fifth spot, they will compete in the Europa League next season rather than Europe’s top club competition.
Key Betting Insights:
Coaching excellence: Simone Inzaghi marked his 150th Serie A match as Inter coach last Sunday, and he now has the second-best points per game record of any coach who has taken charge of 150 league matches with the same club. He only sits marginally behind former Juventus coach Massimiliano Allegri. After Sunday’s 2-0 win over Torino, Inzaghi has an average of 2.18 points per game from his matches in charge of Inter, while Allegri’s record stands at 2.20 points per game from 302 league matches in charge of Juve.
Better on the road: Curiously, Lazio have accrued more points on the road in Serie A this season, winning seven of their last 10 away games, but home woes have continued for some time now as they have drawn their last six Serie A matches.
Betting angles:
More than 2.5 goals: Seven goals against Barcelona over the two legs of their Champions League semi-final plus three in their last league matches tell how rampant Inter have been on the attack. Lazio have conceded 46 league goals this season— more than any other side in the top nine places in the Serie A standings.
Home win: Lazio might be stronger away from home this season, including winning at San Siro against AC Milan earlier this year, but their away record against Inter is poor. Lazio have lost six of their last seven visits to Inter, drew the other, and last beat them away in Serie A action in 2019.
Prediction:
Score Prediction: Inter Milan 3-1 Lazio
Inter are all tails up after their Champions League progress and with Serie A still in sight as well, not about to let up on the momentum. Lazio have been far too inconsistent this season to be able to stage an upset away win.
Date: Sunday, 18 May
Kickoff: 20:45 SAST
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Roma are hunting a top four finish in Serie A but up against it as they sit in sixth spot, albeit only one point behind fourth-placed Juventus. This is their penultimate fixture of the season and last game at home, to be followed by a trip to Torino next weekend. It means they will be hyper-focussed on trying to win and keep up their quest for a Champions League campaign next term.
Milan lost 1-0 to Bologna in the Italian Cup final on Wednesday, handed a surprise setback as their opponents secured their first major trophy in 51 years. Now Milan will have to pick themselves up for their last two games of the season as they chase an outside chance of a place in European club competition next season. They are in eighth position in the league standings with 60 points, four behind Juventus who are tenuously holding onto the last spot for the Champions League next season with Napoli, Inter Milan, and Atalanta having already made sure of the top three places.
Key Betting Insights:
New coach?: It would certainly have been unsettling for Roma this week to learn that Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca could be moving to the Eternal City. Maresca holds a five-year contract at Stamford Bridge, with the option of a 12-month extension, but has not impressed with a boring approach and a move to Italy is seen as a solution for both him and the English club.
Fan boycott: Milan fans are angry with the cup final loss and are now boycotting the Roma game. During Wednesday’s match, supporters quickly started to chant in protest against the ownership and senior members of the Rossoneri’s management, stating that they were unworthy of being a part of the club. Now they say they will not be going to the Roma game. “We’ll leave you alone with your shame,” one supporter group posted on social media.
Betting angles:
Both teams to score: Seven of the last nine times that Roma have hosted Milan in Serie A have ended with both sides finding the net and this is the best bet again when they meet at Stadio Olimpico. Roma have failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 of their last 20 Serie A games against Milan and the visitors have gone ten without a shutout.
Prediction:
Score Prediction: Roma 1-1 AC Milan
Roma have enjoyed success in nine of their last 11 home games in Serie A, including a 1-0 win over Fiorentina two weeks ago. Milan are in good form themselves in Serie A, aiming for a fourth straight league success, but the blow of losing Wednesday’s Coppa Italia final to Bologna will be a difficult one to overcome.
Date: Sunday, May 18
Kickoff: 1900 SAST
Venue: Metropolitano, Madrid
Atlético were seemingly safely ensconced in third place in La Liga after having given up the title race a few weeks ago following a slump that began in March saw them thrown from the Spanish league title race. It had been a three-team affair for much of the season as they were neck-and-neck alongside Barcelona and neighbours Real but they are now eight points behind second place. Atlético’s 2-0 loss to Osasuna on Thursday leaves them now only three points ahead of fourth-placed Athletic Bilbao.
After drawing on Thursday at already-relegated Rayo Vallecano, and also seeing Bilbao win, Real Betis dent their chances for about Champions League football next season. But they still have a chance to make the field as they chase a top five finish in La Liga. Thanks to the great performances of Spanish clubs in Europe this season, at least five La Liga clubs will enter the 2025/26 Champions League. The progression of all these Spanish clubs, with several important victories along the way, has boosted Spain’s coefficient in the official UEFA rankings of national associations.
Key Betting Insights:
Going stateside: Atlético may have little to play for in their final two games against Betis and Girona, but they will still be keen to finish the season strongly as they look to build confidence ahead of next month’s Club World Cup. They share a group there with Botafogo, Paris St Germain and Seattle Sounders.
Final ahoy: Betis are looking forward to competing in their first-ever European final after they reached the Conference League final and will take on Chelsea in Poland on May 28. This is obviously the focus now for the club.
Betting angles:
Home win: Atlético have won six home games on the trot against Betis, whose last success away against them was in 2011.
More than 2.5 goals: Atlético have been scoring liberally at home while six of Betis’ last seven games have seen three goals or more chalked up.
Prediction:
Score Prediction: Atlético Madrid 3-1 Real Betis
Atlético have been formidable on home soil this season with 13 wins, four draws, and just one loss in 18 La Liga contests and will again have too much for Betis to deal with.
Date: Sunday, May 18
Kickoff: 17:30 SAST
Venue: Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Mamelodi Sundowns made sure of an extraordinary, and unprecedented, eighth successive title when they won at Chippa United in East London on Wednesday, topping off another season of runway dominance. They will now be able to enjoy a pressure-free afternoon of coronation with the trophy ceremony to follow the final whistle in front of their fans at Loftus Versfeld.
Magesi are among the success stories of the season, not only for their surprise cup success when they humbled Sundowns in November in the Carling Knockout final in Bloemfontein, and precipitated the sacking of their coach Manqoba Mngqithi, but because they have hauled themselves off bottom place in the league over the last months and are now in contention for a top eight finish in a remarkable turnaround in fortunes.
Key Betting Insights:
Selection dilemma: With the African Champions League final one week away, the temptation from coach Miguel Cardoso must be to field a second-string side. But he will also want to finish the league campaign in emphatic style against Magesi and so must think long and hard about who is going to be put out on the pitch. But many key players are likely to be rested.
Unbeaten run: Magesi were rock bottom of the league at the turn of the year when Owen da Gama took over, but the veteran coach has waved a magic wand. In their last 11 matches, Magesi have lost only three times and four victories and a draw from their last five fixtures have pushed them up to 11th spot. But they are only one point away from eighth position and with three games to go, have a chance to cap off a sterling second half of the season.
Betting angles:
Lucas Ribeiro anytime score: The Brazilian led the race for the Golden Boot, given to the league’s top scorer, for much of the season, but teammate Iqraam Rayners has caught up to him after scoring his 14th of the season against Chippa. Both will be chomping at the bit to get among the goals against Magesi.
Less than 2.5 goals: Sundowns have won their past three league matches with a 3-0 scoreline and, given how slick their attacking machine has been, are likely to do that again. Magesi, however, have conceded only three goals in their past seven games as Da Gama has worked tirelessly on shoring up his defence, repeatedly quoting Sir Alex Ferguson’s mantra that a watertight defence is the cornerstone of any successful team.
Prediction:
Score Prediction: Mamelodi Sundowns 2-0 Magesi
Sundowns will surely finish the season on a winning note, but with changes to their team and up against a fired-up Magesi, will not find matters as cushy as they have been in the past outings.
Date: Sunday, May 18
Kickoff: 1900 SAST
Venue: Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys, Barcelona
Barcelona wrapped up their 28th La Liga title with a 2-0 victory over Espanyol in the Catalan derby on Thursday, which is the second time in three seasons that they have achieved the feat in the home of their city rivals. It was celebrated particularly vociferously by the club’s beleaguered president, Joan Laporta, who claimed many had tried to destabilise the club and “put thousands of obstacles in our way”. The same complaint arch-rivals Real Madrid voice about administrators and referees this season.
Villarreal sit in fifth place in the La Liga standings and on course for the Champions League, which they could achieve even if they lose this game. The only side that can usurp them is Real Betis, five points back, but Betis are away at Atlético Madrid in their last penultimate fixture, and anything but a win puts them out of the race. Villarreal also have the safety net of their last-day home match against strugglers Sevilla.
Key Betting Insights:
Last game as nomads: During next season, Barcelona will make their eagerly anticipated return to the Spotify Camp Nou, which has been undergoing construction work since June 2023. Club bosses had hoped to be back at the iconic stadium by now, but due to delays, it has not been possible. The game against Villarreal is likely Barca’s last using the Olympic Stadium in Barcelona as a home base.
Winning form: Villarreal have built significant momentum in recent games, having put together a four-game winning run since losing 3-0 away to Celta Vigo on March 23. They recorded back-to-back home wins against Espanyol and Osasuna before they claimed a dramatic 1-0 victory in Saturday's away clash against Girona courtesy of Karl Etta Eyong's 89th-minute effort. On Wednesday, they easily thrashed Leganés 3-0 to condemn their visitors to almost certain relegation.
Betting angles:
Robert Lewandowski anytime scorer: The Polish striker has battled with injury in recent weeks but is now back and looking to challenge Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé for the top scorer award.
More than 2.5 goals: Predictably, newly crowned champions Barcelona have the highest number of goals in La Liga this season with a staggering 97, while Villarreal’s total of 64 is the third highest in the Spanish league this season.
Prediction:
Score Prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Villarreal
Cue the title celebrations! Barca showed great restraint on Thursday on the field of their city rivals Espanyol and took their celebrations, after winning the league title, into the changeroom. But now in front of their own fans, they can turn it on.
Date: Sunday, May 18
Kickoff: 1900 SAST
Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville
Victory for Sevilla over Las Palmas on Wednesday was enough to take them away from the relegation places and to safety. The result moved them up to 13th in the standings, one better than where they finished last season, which proved to be their worst final spot in Spain's top flight since being relegated back in 2000. It is the third successive season in which Sevilla have at one stage been involved in the relegation battle, and it has been yet another miserable campaign. That was the first win of Joaquín Caparrós’ fifth reign in charge, which began last month.
Real Madrid were not going down without a fight, even though their title hopes ended with Sunday’s loss at Barcelona. Heavily hit by injury, they now have only pride to play for, as well as to give coach Carlo Ancelotti a fitting farewell before he takes over as the new Brazil boss. It has not been his best campaign, however, as Real have won the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup this season, but they lost the final of the Copa del Rey and Spanish Supercopa to Barcelona, as well as in the quarter-finals of the Champions League to Arsenal.
Key Betting Insights:
A win at last: Joaquín Caparrós’s side finally got back to winning ways in their relegation tussle with Las Palmas after a winless run in Spain's top flight of eight matches. Before that, their last success came away to Real Sociedad on March 9.
Vini back: Vinicius missed out against Mallorca in midweek due to an ankle injury which he suffered in El Clásico last Sunday, but coach Carlo Ancelotti said on Wednesday night that the Brazilian could potentially be available against Sevilla.
Betting angles:
Kylian Mbappé anytime scorer: The French World Cup winner made history in El Clásico last Sunday, with his first two goals against Barcelona moving him onto 38 in his debut season for Real Madrid, surpassing Iván Zamorano, who posted 37 in his first campaign for the club. He completed his hat-trick after that and followed it up with his 40th of the season against Mallorca on Wednesday. It was his 28th La Liga goal, overtaking Alfredo Di Stefano for most goals by a Real Madrid player in a debut league campaign.
Less than 2.5 goals: Sevilla saw over 2.5 goals in four of their last 10 matches, as they scored an average of 0.9 goals. In Real’s last 10 games, they have an average of 1.5 times goals per game but have scored at least one goal in their last 14 matches.
Prediction:
Score Prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Real Madrid
Sevilla have struggled for goals throughout the campaign and their supporters have been voicing their displeasure, but they face a Madrid side with an injury crisis and little to play for, and therefore a point for Sevilla is a reasonable shout, albeit in a low-scoring affair.
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