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DERBY PREVIEW: Team that best adapts to changes will win

rugby07 February 2025 07:00
By:Gavin Rich
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DHL Stormers @ Gallo Images

With both sides working around inconvenient injuries, the coaches who square up in Saturday’s eagerly awaited Vodacom United Rugby Championship derby between the DHL Stormers and Vodacom Bulls could do worse than remember when this game was supposed to be played.

The initial date for this fixture was 21 September last year, meaning it was a first round fixture kicking off their respective campaigns. The Springboks were busy with the Castle Lager Rugby Championship at the time, so had the game been played then, it would have been played between two under-strength teams.

It appears both the Stormers’ John Dobson and the Bulls’ Jake White have worked around the resting periods they have to give their international players per the national protocols in such a way as to ensure that Saturday’s DHL Stadium face off is not impacted. The Hollywoodbets Sharks Boks have been given February off, which is the most sensible time to give players off given that in their case they only play one game in this period.

That is against the Bulls in the game that comes after this one, 15 February, and the Bulls might be aware going into this clash that they do have an opportunity the following week. They could also have an opportunity two weeks after that, as Stormers defence coach Norman Laker hinted in a press conference that the Stormers will rest their international players after the Emirates Lions game that follows this.

START OF PRESSURED PERIOD FOR STORMERS

That would mean the Stormers go under-strength to Loftus at the start of March, and it’s one of the reasons that there should be no arguing with the contention that it is the Stormers who have the most to lose on Saturday and who are under the most pressure. A win won’t end that pressure for them, as they then go to Johannesburg and Pretoria.

Although, in their case, the Stormers have had Boks out with injury for so much of the season that it is far from clear cut who would actually be on a rest and who will be recovering from injury. For instance, Salmaan Moerat has missed a big part of the season, so has Feinberg-Mngomezulu and so did Frans Malherbe, while when Damian Willemse returns he will be playing for the first time in many months. Do those players now have to rest when they should be needing playing time?

Mention of injury cues the big question pervading the buildup to Saturday’s game, which will be played in front of a sold out crowd in Cape Town, with this being the second successive derby to be sold out at the DHL Stadium. The Stormers also played in front of a full stadium when they hosted the Sharks three days before New Year.

It will be a full strength game in the sense that both coaches will pick their best available sides, but right now for both there is a difference between those two words - best and available. In the sense that both sides will be some way short of the best they would muster in a perfect world where everyone is fit to play.

Not that such a scenario ever exists in rugby, but some injuries have more impact than others and the ability of the teams to adapt to the changes that have been made could decide which way this game goes.

UNPREDICTABLE WILLIE COULD HAVE BIG IMPACT

For instance, while neither team has been announced yet, the Bulls looked set to play Bok veteran fullback Willie le Roux at flyhalf. This could work in several different ways, and could have an impact on the Stormers, who might admit they enjoy playing against Bulls teams that have Johan Goosen at No 10.

Goosen was one of the match winners when the sides last met at Loftus last March, but he has also produced some poor performances against the Stormers in the past and they may have considered him a weak link when he’s in the saddle. Well, thanks to Goosen being injured, the Stormers now have Le Roux to contend with, and you get the sense they don’t quite know what to expect.

Le Roux was excellent when he shifted the game in the Bulls’ direction when he came on in Johannesburg last time out so Laker and Stormers wing Leolin Zas were probably being genuine with the praise they were heaping on Le Roux during the buildup week. With Le Roux at No 10, the Bulls will certainly have a different way of playing available to them.

It will be akin to what the Stormers have when Manie Libbok is at flyhalf, which he should be as it appears the injury that forced him off before halftime and cost the Stormers against Leinster was not serious enough to keep him out of this game.

DAN LIKELY TO BE BACK FOR HOSTS

It is a huge pity from the Stormers’ viewpoint that Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is still out injured, as it is for the spectators, as he could add a dazzling dynamic playing outside Libbok. But the good news for the Stormers is that Dan du Plessis is fit again and the experienced centre looks likely to be reintroduced to his steady and long standing partnership with Ruhan Nel.

That’s a strike in the Stormers’ favour, but the loss of big JD Schickerling to a shoulder injury that will keep him out for eight to 12 weeks isn’t and it might have Dobson wondering whether his decision to let Adre Smith take a six month sabbatical in Japan might cost him. It certainly will if there’s another second row injury, and it should be remembered that Hendre Stassen, who might have bolstered the lock resources, has left for France.

But as it turns out the Bulls are also without a key player in Schickerling’s position, with Ruan Nortje, a Bulls co-captain and one of the Boks who made the best progress during the last international season, limping off against the Lions and unavailable for this game.

In both instances the coaches have players to replace the injured No 5s - the Stormers have Ruben van Heerden and White has JF van Heerden and Cobus Wiese ready to slot in.

BULLS WILL MISS ELRIGH

For once it is an opposition team missing a key loose-forward and not the Stormers. The hosts should line up with their preferred combination of Deon Fourie, BJ Dixon and Evan Roos, but the Bulls have lost their star Bok Elrigh Louw. And if you consider he was the co-captain with Nortje, that’s a double whammy.

Louw’s absence will be made up for by the return to the selection mix of Bok flanker Marco van Staden, although it is not really a like for like replacement.

Regardless of his injuries and what he does to solve any problems around that, White should come to Cape Town confident that his team can break their URC drought in the city if they continue the form shown at the end of the Lions game at the start and sustain it through to the finish.

CAPE TEAM’S LINEOUT WOES HAVE TO STOP

The scrums will obviously be a key area of the game, with the Stormers boasting a formidable scrum but the Bulls bringing their former teammate Wilco Louw as a big threat, and it goes without saying that the Stormers can’t afford another lineout malfunction like in the games against Racing 92 and Leinster. Former Stormers lineout guru Andries Bekker, now the Bulls forwards coach, will surely have worked out a plan to put the Stormers under pressure in the formation.

But you fancy it will require a special 80 minute performance from the Bulls for although the Stormers have been hit by unwanted injuries, they have played good rugby in their home matches at the DHL Stadium this season (their two home losses were in Stellenbosch and Gqeberha).

An early afternoon kick-off is not ideal for spectators on the open stands in summer, but fortunately the temperature needle is not expected to rise as high as the 31 degrees predicted for Cape Town on Friday, with 25 degrees predicted for Saturday.

The Stormers kicked off in mid afternoon on a hot day against Sale Sharks and won 40-0 and before that they beat the local version of the Sharks and the Lions. So while they have just experienced two disappointing losses overseas, their form at home is good. If they can reprise the form they showed before they went overseas the hosts should have the edge in what should be a closely fought game.

VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURE (re-scheduled from Round 1)

DHL Stormers v Vodacom Bulls (Cape Town, Saturday 14.00)

Prediction: Stormers to win by 7

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