URC PREVIEW: Mission accomplished but there is pressure on Sharks

They are assured of a top-four finish, which has been their aim for most of the season, but their mission accomplished doesn’t mean there isn’t pressure on the Hollywoodbets Sharks as they end a much improved Vodacom URC league season by hosting the Scarlets.

Indeed, with the DHL Stormers fielding a changed up team against Cardiff on Friday night and the Vodacom Bulls probably capable of beating the Dragons if they played 30 minutes of the Loftus game blindfolded, the Sharks are probably the South African team under the most pressure heading into the final round.

That is in the sense that they have the most improving to do given the expectation that should be on the star-laden Durbanites in the Finals Series that kicks off in a fortnight.

The Sharks have achieved the baseline of establishing a winning habit over the past few weeks, but they are still short of their optimum. Sharks flanker James Venter summed it up by saying that the much hoped for 80-minute performance is still being searched for, and he hopes it will come on Saturday.

If it does, the Scarlets’ quest for a top eight finish will be in peril, although if other results go their way they could still make it even if they lose.

The Hollywoodbets Kings Park game is one of six this weekend, in other words 75 per cent of the fixtures, that has something on the line, be it the quest for preferable finishing order in the top four (Durban, Dublin and Pretoria) or a top eight finish (Cape Town, Limerick and Edinburgh).

It all kicks off with the Stormers game on Friday evening, with two other games that have big import scheduled for the same night. Whatever you want to say about the URC, it is never boring, and the finishes to the season tend to be tight and tense. This one is no different.

Round 18 Vodacom United Rugby Championship previews and predictions

DHL Stormers v Cardiff (Cape Town, Friday 7pm)

There is a feeling of unease about this game from a Stormers viewpoint. While the changed up Stormers team is a strong one, with Manie Libbok’s return at flyhalf hardly something to be concerned about and Sacha is still in the match day squad, continuity is important in rugby.

Most of the combinations have played together before, but some not in a while. Cardiff have their whole season on the line and this will be a final for them. You also shouldn’t read too much into their performance against the Bulls last week as they left out some top players, with this game being their focus. \

The class that is still packed into a Stormers outfit that features 12 changes if you factor in the positional switches from the side that beat the Dragons should edge it but don’t bet your house on it.

Prediction: Stormers by 7

Edinburgh v Ulster (Edinburgh, Friday 8:35pm)

Edinburgh and their coach Sean Everitt will be desperate for the win that will put them into the playoff placings, at least overnight. They will then have an anxious wait to find out what happens elsewhere, with it obviously being beneficial to the currently 10th placed team that two of the teams just ahead of them, Munster and Benetton, are playing each other.

Everitt might also find himself going back in time and rediscovering what it is like to support the Sharks when they host Scarlets, and ditto the Stormers against Cardiff. Ulster’s season was done when they lost to Munster last week so they have less to play for and that means Edinburgh at home should be strong favourites.

Prediction: Edinburgh to win by 10

Munster v Benetton (Limerick, Friday 9pm)

Shew, both of these teams have become incredibly hard to predict. That is particularly true of Benetton, who followed up a supreme performance against the Lions by being smashed 56-5 in Cape Town but then standing up to beat champions Glasgow Warriors 33-7.

But it is also true of Munster, who were good last week against Ulster. At home they are favourites but a lot depends on which Benetton team pitches up.

Prediction: Munster to win by 8

Vodacom Bulls v Dragons (Pretoria, Saturday 3pm)

This one is a gimme for the Bulls, so their second place finish is pretty much assured. The Dragons gave the impression they raised their game a few levels against the Stormers last week but they still ended up losing 48-12 and the game was in Cape Town, in other words not at altitude.

The Bulls have been a rampaging herd over the past few weeks and but for the question mark at flyhalf subsequent to Johan Goosen’s injury they look a good bet to go all the way to the final, where their chances will hinge on whether Leinster get through on the other side of the draw.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 40 or more

Emirates Lions v Ospreys (Johannesburg, Saturday 5:15pm)

Perhaps the stupidest words written on any rugby forum anywhere last week were mine - “Lions to edge it”. Who would ever back the kings of inconsistency with any level of assurance? To be fair, there wasn’t much assurance, and that was written before the puff of still having something to play for was taken out of the Lions by Benetton’s shock win over the Glasgow Warriors, which meant they had nothing to play for.

If the Lions made better use of their opportunities against the Scarlets they may well have won, but the “what ifs” and “might have beens” have been the story of a season which started with such promise but in my book was always going to flounder later on because of the error of focusing too much on the off-season domestic competition.

I wanted to use the word stupid to describe that decision but will reserve that word to describe what I am going to put next to my prediction for this game.

Prediction: Lions to win by 8

Zebre v Connacht (Parma, Saturday 6pm)

Connacht can climb the log and Zebre can’t but that doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of motivation for a host team that has been the most improved team in the competition this year. A good win against the team placed just above them on the log, with it being 14 plays 15, would be the perfect way for Zebre to finish the season and my sixth sense says they will get that right.

Prediction: Zebre to win by 7 or less

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Scarlets (Durban, Saturday 7:30pm)

John Plumtree’s horse now has one more race to get ready for the Kentucky Derby, which is his description of what the quarterfinal represents for a team that effectively had a kind of mini pre-season over the past month and is now homing in on an end goal that has become much nearer.

The coach was happy with the performance against the Ospreys last time out but it was still short of a full gallop and top speed certainly wasn’t attained over the entire 80 minutes. Eben Etzebeth should be there to lead despite his injury last week, as announced by teammate James Venter a few days ago.

Venter will have a key role to play against a team that likes being disruptive and is competitive at the breakdown and which, like Zebre, ranks among the most improved sides in the competition. Their season is on the line so they won’t lack motivation but the Sharks should have too many big guns and should achieve their stated objective of finishing third.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 16

Leinster v Glasgow Warriors (Dublin, Saturday 8:35pm)

This was going to be a game that the Bulls were set to watch on tenterhooks but thanks to the Treviso result that is no longer the case. The Bulls just have to win to finish second. Instead it is the Sharks who might be watching this game with interest, particularly if as expected they beat the Scarlets, but it depends how much they would prefer to play an overseas team rather than the Stormers, who are good in derby games, in their quarterfinal.

With next week being an off week due to them not making the Investec Champions Cup final, Leinster have no reason not to play their full team. And last week against Zebre they showed they are in a vengeful mood. It might not be quite the 52-0 of a few weeks back in a different competition but most of the money will be on Glasgow once again leaving Dublin feeling chastened.

Prediction: Leinster to win by more than 10

Vodacom URC log positions after 17 games

1. Leinster 72, 2. Vodacom Bulls 63, 3. Glasgow Warriors 59, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 58, 5. DHL Stormers 50, 6. Scarlets 48, 7. Benetton 46, 8. Munster 46, 9. Cardiff 46, 10. Edinburgh 44, 11. Ospreys 38, 12. Ulster 38, 13. Emirates Lions 35, 14. Connacht 35, 15. Zebre 29, 16. Dragons 8