URC UPDATE: Stormers now assured and Bulls almost certain of top four

They will be wanting much more but the three points the DHL Stormers picked up in their draw against Ulster at the start of the penultimate round of the Vodacom URC has assured them of a minimum of a home quarterfinal at the end of May.

And while the Vodacom Bulls, who moved into the top four for the first time in a while with their big win over Zebre on Saturday, can still theoretically be knocked out of the bracket that ensures a home game at the start of the Finals Series, that is highly unlikely as they face Benetton, who were thrashed by the Hollywoodbets Sharks at the weekend, in Pretoria in their last game.

It was all in the balance until Connacht played Munster in the last game of another pulsating round in a competition that continues to deliver drama and tension in abundance. Had Munster won in Galway, they would have leapfrogged the Bulls into the top four, and would then be in a good position to nail down a top four finish themselves with a home game against the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions to come.

A Munster win would have been a double whammy for South African hopes in the competition as apart from setting up a situation where there’d just be one quarterfinal in SA, it would also have made Ulster safe in their quest for a top eight finish and allowed them the leeway of fielding a second string team in their final league game at home to Glasgow Warriors next Friday night.

They’d have wanted to rest players if they could as they play Montpellier in the EPCR Challenge Cup final in Bilbao seven days later.

But because Connacht easily outplayed Munster in the last game of round 17 it means Connacht are now just one point behind eighth placed Ulster and Ulster won’t want to gamble their hopes of qualification for next season’s Investec Champions Cup on the result of the decider in Spain.

That they crave a top eight finish was evident from their tenacity in getting a draw against the Stormers in a game where they were under pressure for most of the way.

GALWAY RESULT MEANS ULSTER WILL GO ALL OUT AGAINST GLASGOW

The same grit and tenacity could give them a chance against Glasgow, and if they win that game or limit the visitors to four points it opens the way for the Stormers to still finish top of the log, which they can manage if they win against Cardiff in their last game, also on Friday night.

A win will be enough if Glasgow lose to Ulster, but a win with a bonus point will be enough if Glasgow win without a bonus point as it will draw the two top placed teams level on log points and Stormers have a superior points differential.

Top place is coveted because it would ensure the team that grabs pole position home ground advantage through to the final should they get that far.

Leinster, who outlasted the Lions in their penultimate regular season fixture in Dublin, can still finish top if they win their final game against the Ospreys, which they are likely to do, and the Stormers and Glasgow both lose. They could also finish second if just one of those teams lose.

STORMERS CAN’T END LOWER THAN THIRD

However, with the fourth placed Bulls five points adrift of the Cape team, it is now unlikely the Stormers can end lower than third. They wouldn’t want that as it means they might have to travel to an away semifinal, but it would still be an improvement on the fifth place finish of the two seasons since they last contested a final against Munster in Cape Town in 2023.

A win in Cardiff will be good enough to ensure at least second for John Dobson’s charges as although Leinster could then still draw level on points with a bonus point win over the Ospreys, the Stormers have a vastly superior points differential.

TOP FOUR NOW UNLIKELY FOR LIONS

The Lions are only one point behind the fourth placed Bulls but their failure to register any log points in Dublin on Saturday makes a top four finish highly unlikely now as it would completely depend on them beating Munster in the final URC game of the regular season and the Bulls coming short against Benetton.

The first part of that scenario is possible, the second is much less so. The Bulls will really have to drop the ball now not to wrap up a top four finish and secure a home quarterfinal.

The weekend results effectively ended any hope of SA getting three teams in the top four, although three in the top five, like was the case in the inaugural URC season of 2021/2022, is still possible if the Lions beat Munster. That would set up a trans-Juskei derby between the Bulls and Lions in the quarterfinal round similar to the one between the Bulls and Hollywoodbets Sharks in the first season.

Should the games scheduled for the final round go as they should be expected to the finishing order would be: 1. Glasgow, 2. Stormers, 3. Leinster, 4. Bulls, 5. Munster, 6. Lions, 7. Connacht, 8. Cardiff or Ulster.

The quarterfinals would then see Stormers hosting Connacht in a return of the game that Connacht won in Cape Town a few weeks ago and Munster travelling to Pretoria (It is 2 plays 7 and 4 plays 5). Glasgow would host Cardiff or Ulster while the Lions would head back to Dublin to play Leinster.

UNLIKELY BUT LIONS COULD STILL MISS OUT COMPLETELY

Although ninth placed Connacht are just four points behind the Lions at present, the Lions’ first eight finish is almost certain as it is unlikely that both Cardiff and Ulster win at the weekend. If those two teams do both win though and Connacht win with a bonus point in Edinburgh they could face an agonising last gasp exit from the race.

Weekend results

Ulster 38 DHL Stormers 38

Glasgow Warriors 40 Cardiff 17

Vodacom Bulls 54 Zebre 19

Ospreys 27 Scarlets 20

Hollywoodbets Sharks 46 Benetton 7

Leinster 31 Fidelity SecureDrive Lions 7

Dragons 15 Edinburgh 24

Connacht 26 Munster 7

Log positions after 17 games: 1. Glasgow 60; 2. Stormers 59; 3. Leinster 58; 4. Bulls 54; 5. Lions 54; 6. Munster 51; 7. Cardiff 50; 8. Ulster 50; 9. Cardiff 49; 10. Sharks 41; 11. Ospreys 39; 12. Edinburgh 38; 13. Benetton 33; 14. Scarlets 25; 15. Dragons 25; 16. Zebre 15.

Final round fixtures

Cardiff v DHL Stormers (Cardiff, Friday 8:45pm)

Ulster v Glasgow Warriors (Belfast, Friday 8:45pm)

Edinburgh v Connacht (Edinburgh, Friday 8:45pm)

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Zebre (Durban, Saturday 1:45pm)

Vodacom Bulls v Benetton (Pretoria, Saturday 4pm)

Leinster v Ospreys (Dublin, Saturday 6:15pm)

Scarlets v Dragons (Llanelli, Saturday 6:15pm)

Munster v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (Limerick, Saturday 8:45pm)