Early must- win pressure for last year’s SA top two

There is a need for a statement win across the board for South African teams in the fourth round of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, but it is the top two local finishers from last year, the Vodacom Bulls and the Hollywoodbets Sharks, who go into it under the most pressure.

Bulls coach Johan Ackermann has made 11 changes from the side that lost comprehensively to Ulster last week for a tough away match on Friday night against Connacht, who will be equally desperate for a win so that they can create a platform at the start of a new era under former England coach Stuart Lancaster. 
If the Bulls win it will be their third win in four, and the loss to Ulster will look like an aberration. Lose and it starts to get tough from here as they jostle for the top two finish they have managed over the past two seasons to get them into successive finals.

A win over the same Ulster team that was so good against the Bulls last week is even more of an imperative for the Sharks, as they have only the two points for the draw against the Dragons to show from their first three matches. Any alarm about the Sharks at this early stage of the season is misplaced as this competition is a marathon and not a sprint, and there have been injuries on top of the Sharks’ Bok absentees, but if they don’t win the first home game, the alarm will start becoming more justified.

The Sharks have their phalanx of top Boks back for the game, with the only significant absentee being the injured Aphelele Fassi, and their coach summed it up at the team announcement press conference on Friday when he said there was no room for excuses for this game.

There is the small matter of this week being the first time he has seen his Boks since June, and game growth is something the Sharks will always struggle with if they continue to go through their pre-season with so many top players not participating, but Plumtree reminded us that last year the Sharks were in the same situation when they played their first home game against Glasgow Warriors and they hit their straps.

The Lions have been South Africa’s poorest performers so far and have just the losing bonus point to Zebre to their name, but they should win against a struggling Scarlets team at Ellis Park. That is particularly so if you consider the game kicks off at 13.45, which makes it particularly uncomfortable for a visiting team that also has to deal with altitude.

The Stormers could hardly have asked for a better start to the season as they sit top after the firt three rounds and they will be looking to add to the early platform they have created for themselves by beating Zebre in Parma on Saturday night. The Stormers have never lost to the Italian team but Zebre are a fast improving side.

The best of the games not featuring South African teams this weekend is the Irish derby between Leinster and Munster in Dublin. Friday night’s Edinburgh/Benetton clash in Edinburgh could be a tightly fought game too.

FOURTH ROUND VODACOM URC FIXTURES

Dragons v Cardiff Rugby (Newport, Friday 20.45)

The Dragons are in a familiar position near the bottom of the log but their draw with the Sharks in their last home game should give them confidence. Cardiff have enjoyed a strong start to the season but they are always better at home than they are on the road. This could be a tight game.

Prediction: Cardiff to edge it by less than 7

Edinburgh v Benetton (Edinburgh, Friday 20.45)

Edinburgh lost by only one point to Munster last week and that was encouraging as it was an away game, but they lost to Zebre in the opening week and then their scheduled game against Ulster was postponed by the arrival of Storm Amy. So Edinburgh are under pressure against a visiting team that has challenged strongly in the last two seasons and easily beat the Lions last week. However the word “visiting” is important there - Benetton tend to be better at home than away.

Prediction: Edinburgh to scrape it by 1 to 4 points.

Connacht v Vodacom Bulls (Connacht, Friday 20.45)

Shew, this one is a hard one to call. Galway has been a tough place for South African teams in the past but it has got a bit easier more recently. Connacht have a new coach in Stuart Lancaster and the Bulls also have a new coach in Johan Ackermann. The Bulls have lost once and Connacht have lost once, although the Irish side also missed out on a game because of the weather. Connacht lost narrowly away to Cardiff in the last round but a better measure of their ability might be their 26-15 win over Benetton in the first round. The 11 changes made to the Bulls makes this game even less easy to predict but what the Bulls do possess is depth and a look through the team list suggests they may just have enough to sneak a win.

Prediction: Bulls to scrape it.

Lions v Scarlets (Johannesburg, Saturday 13.45)

With three losses in three starts it has been a horrible start to their campaign for the Lions, who showed some disturbing flaws on defence against Benetton last week. However, they are back on their home patch this week and are playing against a Scarlets team that have been poor so far and were outplayed 34-0 by at home by the Stormers. With an early afternoon kick-off it should be an easy win for the Lions to get their campaign on track.

Prediction: Lions to win by 15

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Ulster (Durban, Saturday 16.00)

Eben Etzebeth, Ox Nche, Siya Kolisi, Grant Williams and Andre Esterhuizen are the big guns who have returned to strengthen the Sharks, while Siya Masuku is back to make his first URC start of the season in the No 10 jersey. Jordan Hendrikse is fit again and will cover that position from the bench. So if you take away the fact he hasn’t seen most of these players since June, coach John Plumtree is right when he says this weekend’s game should see no excuses. But Ulster aren’t a poor team, they showed that against the Bulls last week, so a win is no gimme.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 10.

Leinster v Munster (Dublin, Saturday 18.15)

This is always one of the big derby games of the URC season and this time it is Leinster under more pressure than Munster, who arrive in Dublin second on the log, just behind the Stormers on points difference. Leinster of course are still feeling the pressure created by the two defeats on South African soil, but their win over the Sharks will have stabilised them and on their home ground, and with even more British and Irish Lions back than was they case last week, they should be favoured to win.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 12

Zebre v DHL Stormers (Parma, Saturday 20.45)

The Stormers haven’t named their team yet but given that at least one of them is set to fly home next week, their Bok duo of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Damian Willemse should be in the side. Feinberg-Mngomezulu was the Stormers star in a good win there a few years ago when he was playing one of his first matches at URC level, and as an inside centre on that occasion, so he should have good memories of Parma. So should the Stormers, who won comfortably there last year. The Lions lost at this venue a fortnight ago but the Stormers have momentum and also no doubt the commitment needed to pick up a second tour win.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 12

Ospreys v Glasgow Warriors (Swansea, Saturday 20.45)

The Ospreys have lost twice, but both those games were in South Africa. Glasgow have lost once, to Benetton two weeks ago. They also weren’t particularly impressive in their opener against the Sharks at Scotstoun, but they do have some big-name players back since then, and scored a one-sided 49-0 win over the Dragons last week.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 8