URC PREVIEW: Sharks under pressure but Stormers have big opportunity

The Hollywoodbets Sharks and the Vodacom Bulls go into the final round of the first phase of the Vodacom URC under pressure but the DHL Stormers have a great opportunity to finish off with a statement win that will inspire confidence and create a strong platform for what comes next.

For the Stormers what comes next after Saturday’s clash with Benetton in Treviso is a game against their fellow top bracketed team on the log Munster at the end of November.

Munster are in form so that will be a tough game to win given that it clashes with the Springboks playing Wales in Cardiff the same day and therefore some top players, which has now been expanded to include Ben-Jason Dixon and Zachary Porthen, won’t be available.

So the Stormers would love to head into that game with the buffer of having won five out of five, in which case there’d be less on the line.

Then after that it is the derby phase of the competition, so there’s never any release of pressure - all of which makes it imperative to ride the momentum now and beat Benetton to complete an almost perfect segment of five matches.

That’s just one game less than a third of the season so if the Stormers can end with 23 or 24 log points it will also be a significant dent out of what they need to be sure of a top eight finish and strong contenders for a top four. In fact, what they’ve done so far has arguably already made a top eight finish, which means playoff and Investec Champions Cup qualification, seem more than likely.

A bonus point win will leave them halfway to the qualification cut-off, which was last year Scarlets on 48 points. The Stormers finished on 55, which gave them fifth, so they’d be well on course for top four too.

IT’S TOO EARLY TO WRITE OFF THE SHARKS

But this competition is a marathon and not a sprint, something John Plumtree’s Sharks will be pleased about. There’s been a lot of teeth-gnashing in Durban but the Sharks are not the only rated team in a log-jammed bottom half of the table.

Like Leinster, who host the Zebre on Saturday night, the Sharks should stabilise in this last game of the phase as they host the struggling Scarlets.

It won’t have pleased the players themselves but coach Plumtree should have had his mood improved when Rassie Erasmus came up with his latest Springbok selections - although Bongi Mbonambi might well end up travelling with the Boks if Jan-Hendrik Wessels remains banned, as it stands the Sharks will have the services of Mbonambi, Vincent Koch and Makazole Mapimpi when they play Connacht at the end of November; Jason Jenkins is due to play again soon, and there are other experienced players such as Lukhanyo Am and the two Hendrikse brothers, Jordan and Jaden, in the mix to provide a hearty core to the team.

BIG CHALLENGE FOR BULLS

The biggest challenge facing a South African team this week is Johan Ackermann’s Bulls in Glasgow. The Bulls did win their last year under a different coach, but Glasgow, who beat the Bulls at Loftus in the 2024 final, have built up an impressive head of steam in recent matches after an initial blip at the start.

The Bulls had their blip against Ulster in the third game, losing 28-7, but then stabilised a bit when they narrowly beat Connacht in what was always going to be a close shoot-out in Galway last week. Ruan Nortje is back for the Bulls, and as the captain for the season his leadership will be welcomed, as will that of Marcell Coetzee, who comes in for his first tour game after missing the first bit.

A glance through the Bulls team, noting the number of changes that have been made, provides an illustration of the impressive depth that has been built up at the Pretoria franchise. Up front Gerhard Steenekamp and the in-form Johan Grobbelaar are both current Boks in the front row, Cobus Wiese has been capped in the second, while Jeandre Rudolph, considered a journeyman, has been a revelation at No 8 so far.

Kurt-Lee Arendse is a Bok who is playing off the bench and he could bring massive impact if the game is still close when he comes on, but on their home field Glasgow must start as marginal favourites.

The Lions will be looking for their second win of the season when they face Ulster and although the visitors are surging at the moment the fact they had to dig deep to beat two Bok laden South African teams in the last two weekends might just give the Lions a glimmer of an opportunity. As does the fact the game kicks off at 1:45pm, which is tough for a team visiting the highveld.

Fifth round Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures

Glasgow Warriors v Vodacom Bulls (Glasgow, Friday 8:45pm)

After a poor start Glasgow have managed to get up to third on the log, and a win will open a bit of a gap on the chasers, which includes the Bulls, who currently have 14 points to Glasgow’s 16 after the same number of games, although that narrow gap in points is big enough to be the difference between third and sixth at present. The Bulls did win their last year, but on their home ground Glasgow should be favoured.

Having said that, the Bulls should allow themselves to be spurred on and motivated by the ridiculous ruling that has robbed them of the services of Jan-Hendrik Wessels. I'm not one for conspiracy theories but am completely aligned with the national coach's social media rant about it.

How do you ban a player on another player's say-so, without that player being present to defend himself, and apparently without any evidence?

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 7

Lions v Ulster (Johannesburg, Saturday 1:45pm)

Apparently some of the Ulster Irish internationals went back home this week, which may present a window of opportunity to the Lions. So will the fact that Ulster have had to expend a lot of mental as well as physical energy over the last two weeks in overcoming two more star studded South African teams in the Bulls and Sharks.

The second game on tour is often a mental hurdle for visiting sides, and this game is being played in the early afternoon on the highveld. Good though Ulster have been, I’ve got a funny feeling the Lions might scrape it.

Prediction: Lions to win by less than 7

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Scarlets (Durban, Saturday 4pm)

The Sharks owe both their public and their coach one after last week’s disappointment against Ulster, and word from the camp is that the leaders Siya Kolisi and Eben Etzebeth took charge on Monday and made it clear to the troops they owe Plumtree more than they delivered last week.

The vultures are circling, although it is hard to imagine what good coach would want the job given that the problems at the Sharks preceded Plumtree’s arrival and may be rooted in the legacy left by the previous CEO Eduard Coetzee through some of the appointments he made.

Plus of course the obstacle that having so many Boks on the books has become at this time. The Sharks should win this game comfortably though and if there is any sense of reason in Plumtree’s bosses they should give him a stay of execution and see what he can do in the next month with the players left behind for the Connacht game.

If a shakeup is necessary, it might be elsewhere in the Sharks’ system. Let Plumtree be the main boss and then judge him.

Dragons v Ospreys (Newport, Saturday 6:30pm)

A Welsh derby is a bit like the old Australian derbies in Super Rugby used to be for South African viewers - in other words not particularly appealing. Most local viewers will surely be watching the alternative game in this time slot, Benetton against the Stormers, but this one is 13th (Ospreys) against 15th (Dragons), with the Scarlets bottom. The Dragons are at home but the Ospreys have looked a slightly better team this season to my eyes.

Prediction: Ospreys to win by 8

Benetton v DHL Stormers (Treviso, Saturday 6:30pm)

Much has been made about the Stormers’ good wins away from home in the last two weeks but their forwards coach Rito Hlungwani was quite right when he said earlier this week, “We have beaten those two teams before.”

They have, but they haven’t beaten Benetton away in the competition, so this is a frontier they desperately want to cross. It isn’t clear exactly which Boks have stayed on and will be available for the game, with the team announcement set for later on Friday, but what we do know is that Cobus Reinach looks set for his Stormers debut.

The Stormers are riding a wave of momentum so while Benetton will be tough, and will have their Italian internationals back after they missed out on last week’s loss to Edinburgh away, I fancy them to do what they failed to do two years ago, when Joseph Dweba dived over the wrong line for what he thought was the winning try, by closing out a close one.

At the same time, we can’t be completely sure of that until we’ve seen the Stormers team, for it does depend who is playing.

Leinster v Zebre (Dublin, Saturday 6:30pm)

:Leinster will be chastened by last week’s experience of losing so comprehensively to arch-rivals Munster, and will also have the cracker under them when they look at their current log position (12th). Zebre are in fact ahead of them, three points and four positions ahead of them, in eighth. But Zebre don’t travel well and Leinster need to hit their straps so it should be a comprehensive Leinster win.

Prediction: Leinster to win by more than 20.

Cardiff Rugby v Edinburgh (Cardiff, Saturday 8:45pm)

Edinburgh cooked last week against Benetton and that result lifted them to ninth, but Cardiff are hard to beat on their home ground. The hosts are currently fourth, just three points behind the only two unbeaten teams after four games (Ulster are unbeaten but have only played three), and they should retain that position after this round.


Prediction: Cardiff to win by 7

Munster v Connacht (Limerick, Saturday 8:45pm)

Ireland derbies are always difficult to predict and Stuart Lancaster’s impact as coach is starting to be felt at Connacht but on their home field the joint log-leaders with the Stormers should win.

Prediction: Munster to win by 8