URC UPDATE: Imperious Leinster returning log to business as usual

Leinster’s imperious performance against the Vodacom Bulls in the top of the log clash at the weekend was a mortal blow to those who hoped the race for top spot on this year’s Vodacom United Rugby Championship log might be tighter than it has been in past seasons.

There are still only five points separating Leinster, who when at full strength like they were against the Bulls are pretty much the Ireland test team, and second placed Glasgow Warriors, but they’ve opened a nine point lead on the Bulls and look poised to increase their lead on Glasgow too.

Up until now the battle for top of the log supremacy has been nip and tuck, with the Bulls very much within touching distance of Leinster, and the Warriors too. Leinster started the season poorly, registering a loss in the first round, when they had the misfortune of having to travel to the Glasgow home ground of the Scotstoun on a weekend where the Irish internationals were still recovering from the World Cup.

They also hit another bump when they were upset by Ulster during the festive season, and let’s not forget they also still have to come to South Africa, where they will face the DHL Stormers in Cape Town and the Emirates Lions at altitude.

However, the power, efficiency and control that the full strength Leinster side exhibited in dispatching the Bulls sent out the message that the league battle is going to evolve as business as usual from here on. Glasgow Warriors’ five points picked up in a big win in Llanelli at the weekend keeps them in touching distance, but it’s going to be a struggle for them and the Bulls to stay within range.

SA TOURS WILL HAVE TELLING IMPACT

Much will hinge on how Glasgow tour when they come to South Africa (they actually host the Hollywoodbets Sharks in their next URC match), and perhaps also the strength of the Leinster squad that comes here after what for them should be two Investec Champions Cup playoff games. Munster are also set to come to South Africa, where they will play the Bulls and the Lions, so there’s much to play for still when it comes to teams like the Stormers who are on the edge of the top four.

You do get the impression though after the job they did on the Bulls that the log race is Leinster’s to lose and that they will head into the jeopardy of the Finals Series in June once again with the top seeding. That hasn’t helped them in the past two seasons, with the Bulls and Munster taking turns at knocking them out in semifinals, but the top seeding will nonetheless be coveted.

RACE FOR SECOND REMAINS COMPELLING

As inevitable as Leinster’s pole position may appear, so the race for second is compelling and tight. Glasgow have a four point advantage on the second placed Bulls, but still have to come to Loftus.

The Bulls are two points ahead of Munster - who also have to come to Loftus. And fourth placed Munster are just four points ahead of the team they beat in last year’s final, the Stormers. The visits of Munster and Glasgow, and for that matter Leinster, to South Africa are going to have a telling impact on the final standings.

And just how much of a negative impact a losing tour could have is something that Edinburgh and Ulster will both be able to tell you about. By clinching a losing bonus point in a low scoring yet absolutely absorbing clash with the Stormers in Cape Town, Ulster managed to hang onto eighth spot at the end of the Easter weekend.

BIG SWINGS

But Edinburgh left with nothing from their two match tour and like Ulster have tumbled down the log, in their case from fourth to ninth in the space of just two matches. The Stormers have gone in the opposite direction - they were ninth before the Edinburgh game and now after their wins over both Edinburgh and Ulster they are fifth and closing in on fourth.

The logjam from second to 11th has meant that each week is going to see big swings and every loss is potentially hugely damaging. Connacht followed up their big loss to the Lions in Galway the previous week by losing to Benetton in Treviso, although it was a close game, as was the one between Munster and Cardiff.

By failing to get over the line, the Welsh team have surrendered their chance of making it into the top eight, with the 11 points they need to make up on eighth placed Ulster with five games remaining now looking a bit much.

The other Welsh challengers, the Ospreys, are however suddenly sitting pretty in seventh place after their good win over the Lions in Swansea. Much for them will hinge on how they go in South Africa, with their next game being a tough away fixture against the Stormers in Cape Town.

Weekend Vodacom United Rugby Championship results

Leinster 47 Vodacom Bulls 14

Dragons 20 Zebre 13

Benetton 18 Connacht 14

Hollywoodbets Sharks 23 Edinburgh 13

Ospreys 36 Emirates Lions 21

DHL Stormers 13 Ulster 7

Scarelts 3 Glasgow Warriors 45

Munster 20 Cardiff Rugby 15

Next URC games

Ulster v Cardiff Rugby (19 April, 20.35)

Glasgow Warriors v Hollywoodbets Sharks (19 April, 20.35)

Benetton v Dragons (20 April, 15.00)

Emirates Lions v Leinster (20 April, 15.00)

Vodacom Bulls v Munster (20 April, 17.05)

DHL Stormers v Ospreys (20 April, 19.15)

Edinburgh v Scarlets (20 April, 20.35)

Connacht v Zebre (20 April, 20.35)

Top 12 log positions after 13 games: Leinster 54, Glasgow Warriors 49, Vodacom Bulls 45, Munster 43, DHL Stormers 39, Benetton 37, Ospreys 35, Ulster 35, Edinburgh 34, Connacht 34, Emirates Lions 34, Cardiff Rugby 24