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URC SCENE SETTER: All the permutations ahead of decisive final round

rugby30 May 2024 07:30| © SuperSport
By:Gavin Rich
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Wilco Louw © Gallo Images

It has been an enthralling Vodacom United Rugby Championship season, and this weekend’s final round will start with even 10th placed Connacht still having a slight mathematical chance of making the play-offs and still being in the running for silverware.

Yet it is how the teams finish at the top and who plays who in the first game of the Finals Series that should grab as much focus in this last round as the quest by Edinburgh, Benetton, Emirates Lions and Connacht to get into the playoff qualification bracket.

You can actually add sixth placed Ulster to that group, for even they aren’t completely assure of a top eight finish with the one point lead the fifth placed DHL Stormers have on them making all the difference between complete safety and potential jeopardy.

Throw in the fact that last week’s win by the Hollywoodbets Sharks in the EPCR Challenge Cup final has now made it imperative to finish no lower than seventh to be assured of Investec Champions Cup qualification, and a whole extra layer of intrigue is added.

BULLS’ CHANCE MAY DEPEND ON POLE POSITION

Locally, the best chance of a South African team doing what the Stormers did in the inaugural season by winning the trophy is for the Vodacom Bulls to go top, which would mean they play all their playoff games at Fortress Loftus. They will be hard to beat in Pretoria, even by Leinster.

For that to happen the Bulls, currently second, need to beat the Sharks, in Durban and then bank on Ulster continuing the form they showed with their recent home win over Leinster by doing it away against the reigning URC champions, Munster.

CONNACHT’S NIGH IMPOSSIBLE MISSION

When it comes to Connacht’s ever so slight glimmer of hope, they will need to pick up a full house of five log points on Friday night - the problem being that they are away at the RDS Arena to Leinster. In the past, Leinster have been caught out by a post Champions Cup final loss when returning to the URC, but their former Springbok World Cup winning coach Jacques Nienaber said earlier in the week appeared to suggest earlier in the week that his new team has learned from past mistakes.

If they do hit that target though, they will be seventh on the log going into Saturday’s play. They will then face an anxious wait hoping that the Emirates Lions get nothing out of their early afternoon game against the Stormers in Cape Town and that the loser of the Benetton/Edinburgh game that kicks off 15 minutes later also fails to pick up a log point.

Here is what the top 10 teams need in the final round:

1. Munster: With a two point lead at the top, a win over Ulster will guarantee them pole position. If they lose, and the Bulls, Leinster and Glasgow Warriors win, they could slip to fourth.

2. Vodacom Bulls: A win over the Sharks and a Munster loss will give them first place. If they lose in Durban, and Munster, Leinster and Glasgow win, they will finish fourth and put them on a possible collision course with their arch rivals the Stormers in the quarterfinal.

3. Leinster: They can only repeat their top place finish of the last two seasons if both Munster and the Bulls lose. With all the teams in the top four sitting on 12 wins, a try scoring bonus point win will be an imperative for Leinster as it could make the difference between second and fourth.

4. Glasgow Warriors: They’re on the same number of points as Leinster with the same number of wins so you have to pity Zebre, who are visiting the Scotstoun on Friday night. The difference in points differential could separate third from fourth, or even first from second, if both Munster and the Bulls lose. At the moment Leinster are fourth because their points differential is 24 points better. Glasgow will be aiming to close that gap.

5. DHL Stormers: The highest the inaugural champions and twice finalists can end is where they are now, and because they have won more games than the chasing teams, the lowest they can end is seventh. If they win against the Lions and Ulster lose, fifth is where they will finish. If both teams lose, Edinburgh will come into play for fifth if they pick up five points as they will then have more wins than both, but a Stormers losing bonus point will be enough to ensure fifth.

6. Ulster: The men from Ulster face a similar scenario to the Stormers. If they win, they hold their place, if they lose though, and this is what is different to the Stormers, they could drop out of the top eight. The solitary point that the Stormers lead them by makes all the difference to the scenario. If both teams lose and Ulster pick up a bonus point and the Stormers don’t it won’t make a difference to finishing position as the Cape side has a vastly superior points differential.

7. Edinburgh: For Sean Everitt’s charges the objective is quite simple - they have to win away in Treviso or they could drop right out of the top eight. The advantage the Edinburgh have over the Lions and for that matter Connacht though is that they have 11 wins to nine, so if they end level on points with either of those teams, which is where they are now, they will finish higher.

8. Benetton: A win will put Benetton through because they have more wins - 10 against 9 - against the only team that can pip them to a top eight spot if they do prevail in Treviso, which is the Lions. It is though these two teams playing against each other and thus one being cancelled out that makes it possible for the Lions and gives a glimmer of hope to Connacht.

9. Emirates Lions: The Johannesburg team was the last local side to beat the Stormers at DHL Stadium and they have to do what they did in early December 2021 - win with a bonus point. They have fewer wins than the Stormers so even if they do get five and the Stormers none, the Stormers will finish ahead of them as they will have the same number of points. A loss will see the Lions ruled out as they have fewer wins than the two sides currently tied with them on 49, Edinburgh and Benetton.

10. Connacht: A full house of log points against Leinster will lift Connacht to 50, which is where they need to be to stand any chance. They will then have to hope that the Lions leave Cape Town without a point and that the loser of the game in Treviso doesn’t pick up a bonus point. If the loser with a bonus point is Benetton, then it will come down to points differential, where Connacht do currently have a slight advantage - 12 points.

Top 10 positions with one round to go

Munster 63 points (12 wins - points diff +160), Vodacom Bulls 61 points (12 wins - points diff +194), Leinster 60 points (12 wins - points diff +178), Glasgow Warriors 60 points (12 wins - points diff +154), DHL Stormers 54 points (11 wins - points diff +115), Ulster 53 points (11 wins - points diff +33), Edinburgh 49 points (11 wins - points diff +44), Benetton 49 points (10 wins - points diff - 14), Emirates Lions 49 points (9 wins - points diff +133), Connacht 45 points (9 wins - points diff - 2).

FINAL ROUND VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Leinster v Connacht (Dublin, Friday 8:35pm)

Glasgow Warriors v Zebre (Glasgow, Friday 8:35pm)

DHL Stormers v Emirates Lions (Cape Town, Saturday 1:45pm)

Benetton v Edinburgh (Treviso, Saturday 2pm)

Scarlets v Dragons (Llanelli, Saturday 4pm)

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls (Durban, Saturday 4:10pm)

Munster v Ulster (Limerick, Saturday 6:15pm)


Cardiff v Ospreys (Cardiff, Saturday 6:30pm)

 

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