URC PREVIEW: Bulls have a chance to dramatically change the narrative

The home ground of the Glasgow Warriors was described as a slaughterhouse this week by one of their coaches, a description of a venue that sounds more French than Scottish, but it did lay down the battle lines for the feature Vodacom United Rugby Championship match of round 16.

Glasgow’s attack coach Nigel Carolan is actually Irish, which makes the ‘slaughterhouse’ comment more understandable, as the Irish are somewhere between the French and the Scots when it comes to colourful.

To be fair, he probably had in mind the animals the visitors from Pretoria, the Vodacom Bulls, are named after when he made the comment - in real life even the most fearsome bulls ultimately end up in a slaughterhouse.

Being slaughtered certainly isn’t this bunch of Bulls’ intention, and while their coach Jake White was eager in his team announcement press conference to lower the temperature a bit by stressing he doesn’t motivate on revenge, it would be very naive to disagree with the perception that Friday night’s game has been one they have been thinking about for a long time.

It wouldn’t be natural for the Bulls, or conform to the psyche of a professional sportsman, particularly when participating in a contact sport, to suffer the abject disappointment the Bulls experienced in a home final everyone expected them to win last June and not want to set the record straight.

If the Bulls don’t want to do that, they are in the wrong business.

Carolan is right though that it won’t be easy, and while ‘slaughterhouse’ comes across as an exaggeration given where the Scotstoun is, with Glasgow being soccer country and the real passion and aggression of the sporting public there mostly focused on the battles between the the “Old Firm”, Rangers and Celtic, it is nonetheless more of a fortress than Loftus is.

It will take an excellent and accurate performance for the Bulls to win, and given what is at stake, it would be a seismic and narrative-changing moment in the season. With the hosts destined to still go to Dublin to play Leinster in one of their remaining matches, if the Bulls, who are four points adrift of the second-placed team currently, get ahead now there is a good chance it will stay that way.

Facing a home run in the playoffs that includes both a quarterfinal and semifinal will make the Bulls second favourites behind Leinster to win a trophy they have twice come within one game of annexing.

More than that, given that they beat Munster in Limerick a week ago, something that had not been done before, it will significantly shift the narrative around SA teams struggling in big games away. Which will inspire confidence for what lies ahead of the Bulls should they have to play a playoff away.

A TOUGH ONE FOR THE SHARKS TOO

Given that Ulster are 10th on the log you’d say that the Sharks’ task at the Kingspan Stadium the next day is less laden with the potential to change the narrative than the game in Glasgow, but nonetheless it is a similar kind of occasion. Ulster are not having their best season but have a big standing in the sport and they don’t lose in Belfast often.

Like Munster before the Bulls game, they also haven’t lost at home to SA opposition. A Sharks win by any score will be significant in what it says about their title challenge, and it really doesn’t matter by what score.

 Listening to Andre Esterhuizen speak this week it was evident that the Sharks saw last week’s win over Edinburgh for what it was, a win at a difficult away venue, and haven’t paid much attention to the bunk spoken by people who have never been there and therefore don’t understand that.

STORMERS BOAST ENVIABLE X-FACTOR

A difficult away venue is what Benetton are visiting on Saturday evening but after their good win over the Emirates Lions, plus a recent triumph over La Rochelle in the Investec Champions Cup, they will run out to play the DHL Stormers in Cape Town with some hope. If they do win, a fifth-placed finish is likely, although they would also be in with an outside chance of making the top four if the Sharks fluff their lines against Ulster.

The Stormers have the same carrot, as in they could be fifth by the end of this round, but they will have to be a lot better than they were against Connacht last weekend.

Round 16 VURC Previews and Predictions

Cardiff v Munster (Cardiff, Friday 8:35pm)

This is sixth plays seventh on the log and with the winning team cancelling the other out, it does present an opportunity for the Stormers to jump up the table if they beat Benetton. Who are fifth, but just one point separates fifth to eighth.

Munster have injury problems in the front row that contributed to their defeat to the Bulls last week, albeit that it became much easier for them when uncontested scrums were called in the second half. Cardiff don’t boast a formidable scrum like the Bulls do, but at home they should recognise they have an opportunity in a game that is hard to call.

PREDICTION: Cardiff to win by less than 7.

Glasgow Warriors v Vodacom Bulls (Glasgow, Friday 8:25pm)

The Bulls made a strong statement by winning away against Munster and it will have been great for their confidence. Let’s not forget though that the week before that they were in Scotland and lost to Edinburgh, who are strong at home but not at the level of the Scottish team the Bulls play on Friday.

Willie le Roux is back for the Bulls and that is a boost. Glasgow don’t lose often at their home ground so they start as favourites.

PREDICTION: Glasgow to win by 7

Emirates Lions v Connacht (Johannesburg, Saturday 4pm)

Connacht had a new lease on life last week against the Stormers in what can be regarded as a positive reaction to their change in coach. Often though when a team does well in their first game in this country it is a prelude to an off day the following week, and that may well be the case in Johannesburg, where in some books Connacht are in the rare position of being favourites to win a game in South Africa.

The Lions players have lost five in a row but defended their coach this week. They need to win for that defence to have substance. While in my book the Lions are now paying the price for taking the Currie Cup seriously in what should be their off-season, I have a sneaky suspicion they will stand up for this one.

PREDICTION: Lions to win by 8

Ospreys v Dragons (Newport, Saturday 4pm)

The Ospreys still have a faint chance of making the top eight but it is definitely Last Chance Saloon for them and against the last placed Dragons at home that should be enough motivation to ensure a comfortable victory.

PREDICTION: Ospreys to win by 15

DHL Stormers v Benetton (Cape Town, Saturday 6:15pm)

The thing about defence is that if you come off a good base, which the Stormers do, malfunctions can be fixed, even in just a week. You can’t just create the dazzling X-factor the likes of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu brought on attack last week, so if the Stormers have corrected the other half of their game, they have a lot going for them.

But Benetton are formidable opponents, and this will be a tough obstacle for the Stormers to overcome. Benetton actually lead when it comes to results of their three meetings thus far, with Benetton winning twice and the Stormers winning once.

That Stormers win came in their only home game against the Italian team, which was in Stellenbosch. So this will be Benetton’s first visit to DHL Stadium. The Stormers don’t lose there often and last week’s narrow escape against Connacht was a necessary wake-up call.

PREDICTION: Stormers to win by 7

Scarlets v Leinster (Llanelli, Saturday 6:15pm)

It’s knock-out time now for Scarlets, who are three points outside of the playoff bracket, so they won’t lack motivation on their home ground. But it is Leinster they are playing against and they’ve only dropped the ball once this season. The winning margin will depend on who Leinster select for the game.

PREDICTION: Leinster to win by more than 14

Zebre v Edinburgh (Parma, Saturday 8:35pm)

Edinburgh were understandably disappointed to lose so narrowly to the Hollywoodbets Sharks in a game they dominated for much of it. It would have been particularly galling for coach Sean Everitt given his history with the Sharks, but even more so as it appeared to lose them a gilt edged opportunity to take charge of their destiny in the battle for a top-eight finish.

How they go against much improved Zebre may depend on their level of hangover from last week’s defeat. If they still have top eight ambitions and are eager to bounce back, a win is probable. Less so if they are down in the dumps and resigned to be also-rans for another year.

PREDICTION: Edinburgh to scrape it.

Ulster v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Belfast, Saturday 8:35pm)

Ulster are saying farewell in this game, or at least the Kingspan Stadium faithful are, to eight players, including some legendary stalwarts in the form of John Cooney and Kieran Treadwell. That will add to Ulster’s motivation, as will their log position.

They are on the outside looking in when it comes to the top-eight bracket. There is a lot of experience in the home team, and when at home they do grow an extra arm and a leg. So it will be a tough night for the Sharks and if there is anyone who expects them to win easily they know nothing about who Ulster are.

But the Sharks big guns had their first run out together in a while last week in Edinburgh and the win should have given them a modicum of psychological momentum.

PREDICTION: Sharks to win by 7 or less.

LOG SITUATION AFTER 15 GAMES

1. Leinster 67 points, 2. Glasgow Warriors 58, 3. Vodacom Bulls 54, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 49, 5. Benetton 41, 6. Cardiff 41, 7. Munster 40, 8. DHL Stormers 40, 9. Scarlets 38, 10. Ulster 37, 11. Edinburgh 37, 12. Connacht 35, 13. Ospreys 33, 14. Emirates Lions 31, 15. Zebre 27, 16. Dragons 9.