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URC PREVIEW: Bulls the only banker but good chance SA will have three in semis

rugby30 May 2025 06:56| © SuperSport
By:Gavin Rich
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Canan Moodie © Gallo Images

The Vodacom Bulls are the only ones you should think about betting your life savings on, and even then you should demur, but there’s a good chance the Pretoria team will have the other two local teams as company in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship semifinals.

The Bulls, as the second most consistent team in the competition this season behind Leinster, should win at home against Edinburgh and advance to a home semi the following week.

The reason you should ultimately resist any temptation to spend all your savings on them is because Edinburgh have picked up a good head of steam in the past few weeks and there have been some really odd results recently.

Plus, as DHL Stormers coach John Dobson pointed out, it does appear that Munster started a trend two years ago when they overcame three big away obstacles to win the URC that is catching on. Last year’s winners, Glasgow, played both their semifinal and the final away.

In fact the Stormers in the first season of the URC were the only team to do what is generally expected, namely use home ground advantage in the playoffs. And even then they were helped in their quest by the Bulls’ seismic semifinal win in Dublin.

But come on, the Bulls have to be strong favourites against Edinburgh, which isn’t quite what you’d say for the other two teams, the Hollywoodbets Sharks and the Stormers.

HOME TEAM SHARKS ARE MARGINAL FAVOURITES

Yes, as the home team the Sharks would in my view be marginal favourites, but that isn’t necessarily a universal view. It goes without saying that John Plumtree’s men are going to have to be much better than they have been recently in order to still be alive in this competition come Saturday night.

They have the pedigree though on the team sheet and they also have a winning habit, plus a knowledge of how to win playoff games.

They are much less significant competitions, but if you look at the Sharks’ record in the last knock-out games they have appeared in spanning the EPCR Challenge Cup and the Carling Currie Cup, you won’t see a single blemish. And several of those games were won late in the piece against the odds.

So don’t bet on the Sharks if you don’t trust their form, but don’t bet against them either. They have a great chance of being in Pretoria next week for a semifinal.

MATCH OFFICIATING COULD BE OBSTACLE TO STORMERS

The Stormers have much less chance of being in Dublin next week, and it’s easy to explain that by pointing to the home ground advantage that Glasgow Warriors will have.

Apart from the obvious advantage of familiarity with their home pitch and the support of what their coach Franco Smith refers to as “the Warrior Nation”, there’s also the vagaries of modern match officiating to consider.

We live in an era where it feels like if a player sneezes he risks a red or yellow card. An accidental clash of heads, a player carrying the ball dipping into you - they can all lead to a red and suspension.

Yes, it sometimes happens to the home team, like it did to Damian Willemse in Cape Town two weeks ago, but it is far more likely to happen to a visiting team who are at the mercy of a home crowd that will bay for blood and draw the referee to the big screen for incidents that might otherwise have been missed.

There’s no logic to it, there’s no justice, and it is one of the reasons some of us who have loved rugby for decades struggle to keep that love affair alive, but it is nonetheless a reality.

Of course, if you point out that if the Stormers wanted to avoid that disadvantage they should have finished in the top four, and not fifth, it would be a point well made.

But it does not change the fact that we could well have a card ruin Friday night’s game, and it is more likely to be to a visiting player. So anyone who says “The Stormers will definitely win” should check what substances were hidden in the filling of their last sandwich.

Yet while Stormers coach John Dobson made some questionable selections that might border on a gamble for the Scotstoun, he’s also right when he says he will be disappointed if his team don’t get over in the line in this one.

The Willemse suspension aside, his team is in a much better space than when they went to Glasgow this time last year. They got there early, with a full week to prepare in the city they are playing the game, plus Glasgow are missing some key players to injury.

So yes, there is a realistic chance, maybe more than just a realistic chance, that the Stormers could win and make it three South African teams out of four URC semifinalists.

PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

Glasgow Warriors v DHL Stormers (Glasgow, Friday 8:35pm)

It could be SFM's night

When I saw the Stormers team selection my initial impression that the Cape side had a good chance of winning even without Damian Willemse evaporated.

The reason for the confidence was that when Willemse was suspended it was felt that by shifting Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (SFM) sideways to No 12 alongside Manie Libbok the Stormers would have two world class operators in the key decision-making axis on attack. Meaning that Willemse would be missed less.

Most defences in the world would struggle with having Libbok and SFM paired against them. It is understandable that Dan du Plessis is seen as pivotal to the Stormers’ plans on defence, but he has been used often enough as an outside centre.

And of course Libbok is on the bench, so the Stormers could revert to the Libbok/SFM 10/12 configuration later in the game. It’s just that my initial sixth sense, and it still is, is that Dobson is making a mistake by not starting them together that he may regret.

But then came the Glasgow Warriors team announcement. Last year it was the Stormers who were missing several top players and had to patch the team together, but this time it is Glasgow.

Sione Tuipoluto and Huw Jones were missed sorely as a midfield combination while they were out, but when they were together again against Leinster the Scottish side rediscovered its Mojo. Well, part of it at least. Now Jones is out, Jack Dempsey is not back, Zander Fagerson is out, Duncan Weir is out.

STRONGER TEAM THIS TIME

The Stormers by contrast, with Evan Roos playing this time (he missed last year’s quarterfinal) and with the likes of Feinberg-Mngomezulu a year more experienced, look a stronger unit than the one that contested the last quarterfinal 12 months ago and lost 27-10 by conceding late scores.

There is an element of gamble to the Stormers selection, and it is odd that Dobson chose Suleiman Hartzenberg as an outside centre when he didn’t back him there in easier games at home. But Dobson is right - he should be disappointed if his team doesn’t get over the line.

And so should the Cape rugby public. To quote the Munster coach on the expectations around his team this week - this isn’t a free pass for the Stormers, a time when they can say “well at least we made fifth and we tried”. They need to win. I sense a SFM night coming.

Prediction: Stormers to edge it by less than 7

Vodacom Bulls v Edinburgh (Pretoria, Saturday 31 May, 1:30pm)

If you slay Leinster twice you are not chokers

There’s a weird narrative being cast in some quarters that the Bulls are chokers. It is difficult to understand, particularly heading into the initial playoff phase.

Only once in URC history have the Bulls failed to make the final, and that was when they went into the Finals Series as the sixth placed team after a poor regular season and had to play the third placed Stormers in Cape Town. 

The Stormers were streets better that season (2022/2023) than the Bulls and started that quarterfinal at the DHL Stadium as clear favourites. There was no choke.

The other two seasons saw the Bulls beat mighty Leinster in their semifinals, once in Dublin and last year in Pretoria. That’s not a bad effort if they are a team of chokers. Their defeats at the last hurdle have context too.

In 2022 they had to come back from overseas to play the Stormers. And some sources around the Bulls camp have admitted that there might have been a bit of complacency as well as deflection of focus heading into last year’s final against Glasgow.

The first part would be understandable given they had easily outplayed Glasgow in league play a few weeks before that.

The second revolved around the fact that somehow someone saw it in their wisdom to schedule a Springbok game (against Wales in London) for the same day as the URC final and it was played a few hours before the Loftus game. 

The story that the players, particularly those with Bok ambitions, were in the final hours before the final a bit preoccupied with what was happening in London when all their focus should have been on Glasgow isn’t that difficult to believe.

THERE WON'T BE COMPLACENCY FROM HOSTS

There is no Bok game scheduled this Saturday, and there should be no complacency either if you consider how close Benetton came to upsetting the Bulls on their own paddock in last year’s quarterfinal.

Plus Edinburgh, their opponents in this game, did push them at Loftus back in September, and that on a hot afternoon at a stifling time of year. They beat the Bulls the last time they played them, which was in the Challenge Cup quarterfinal.

Memories of that most recent game though should be as much of how strongly the Bulls came back from a big deficit to have Edinburgh hanging on at the end as on the quick start the hosts made in a game where it looked like the Bulls had just been awakened from an afternoon sleep.

There has been nothing sleepy about the Bulls since that game and they’ve beaten both Munster and Glasgow Warriors away, which not many teams do.

If there’s something coach Jake White might be wary of it is that sometimes, quite oddly, his team seems more vulnerable at Loftus than away.

But being aware of something is also being forearmed and while Edinburgh do pose some threats, the Bulls’ scrum and their all-round power game should just be too much for their opponents.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 10 or more.

Leinster v Scarlets (Dublin, Saturday 31 May, 4pm)

Leinster won't trip at this hurdle

This is the big gimme of the weekend. Or is it? Admittedly it was an understrength Leinster team and they were playing at Parc Y Scarlets and not the AVIVA Stadium, but Scarlets won very comfortably against Leinster the last time they played them.

Take away the defeat to the Bulls and the Champions Cup semifinal shock loss to Northampton Saints and that was the only time Leinster have lost this season.

But while the Scarlets have made massive improvements this season and are capable of pushing anyone when it all clicks, this is really a case of a good little team coming up against a good big team.

For the Scarlets just making the playoffs was an achievement. Their job has been done. They will be representing Wales in the Champions Cup next year.

While they are building towards something good, now is not their time, and Leinster were far from the ideal opponents to meet at this point of the season.

Not only do Leinster have to put right the disappointment of their Champions Cup exit, they also need to avenge what happened in Llanelli a few weeks ago. This will vie with the game in Pretoria as the most one-sided of the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Leinster to win by at least 20

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Munster, Saturday 31 May, 6:30pm)

Playoff pressure may bring out their best

Phew. More waiting for Sharks fans for that train that doesn’t come. The reference being the perception that the Sharks, with the team they have on paper, should be winning every game with style and with something to spare.

Their influential centre Andre Esterhuizen spoke about that perception this week. He said the Sharks too have the expectation that they should be winning games by more. He also said what everyone might be thinking - this could just be the weekend where everything clicks for them. But then that’s what we think every week.

One thing that should not be ignored though in all the hyper focus on what the Sharks aren’t doing, meaning mounting potent attacking plays that result in tries, is what they are doing - they are winning. And as Esterhuizen says, they are winning while not playing particularly well. Wins away against Edinburgh and Ulster weren’t to be scoffed at.

The games in Durban against the two Welsh teams were affected by dew, as indicated by the fact it wasn’t just the Sharks who looked like they couldn’t catch the ball (particularly against Scarlets).

With the game in Durban kicking off at 6:30pm, meaning darkness would have arrived and that according to Esterhuizen is when the dew arrives, it is likely that the quarterfinal might be a similar grind to the two games that have preceded it.

My money says that if you want to see the Sharks get on point with their attacking game, wait until they get to a dry field and conditions that suit that style of play. Meaning Loftus in the semifinal.

UP AGAINST KNOCK-OUT KINGS

Of course they have to get there first, and not for nothing are Munster known as kings of knock-out rugby, a reputation built around them winning the competition two years ago when they had to play all three playoff games away from home.

It’s not going to be an easy game for the Sharks, even though they easily beat these same opponents at Hollywoodbets Kings Park back in October.

But they do have a good record of winning tight games this season, so the Sharks are well equipped to play knock-out rugby themselves. They will need to play the game to suit the conditions but if they do there is no reason they shouldn’t win.

They have a monster scrum when it gets going, and last week their talisman Eben Etzebeth showed signs in his first 80 minute run in a sod of a long time that he is regaining the momentum that has made him the SA Rugby Player of the Year twice consecutively and which frankly should have been good enough to also win him the World Rugby Player of the Year Award (apologies to his Bok teammate Pieter-Steph du Toit).

It’s knockout time, it’s high pressure time, and a little bit like the late Clive Rice when he was leading the Transvaal Mean Machine on the cricket field all those years ago, it’s those times that bring the best out of the top Boks.

Prediction: Sharks to win a close one

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